Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Red Star v Metz

Kickoff: 2026-09-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Red Star 1–0 Metz

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Red Star (Local)

Prediction 39.33%2.54fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.55%39.37%39.33%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.352.4145.45%42.93%42.55%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Metz (Visit)

Prediction 32.45%3.08fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.549%
Kelly -0.819%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.30%32.47%32.49%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.883.0337.04%35.29%34.72%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.936%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%28.16%28.18%29.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.253.4332.26%30.88%30.77%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Red Star (Local): 39.33%; Metz (Visit): 32.45%; Draw: 28.22%. For Metz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.03, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.78%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 18:35
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.13%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.79%EV -1.66%E -0.549%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.08%EV -3.21%E -0.936%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-14 18:30
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-14 13:40
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.37%E -4.58%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-14 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.14%EV -5.23%E -1.79%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 17:41
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.14%EV -5.23%E -1.79%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 17:41
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 14:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 13:40
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.38%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 18:25
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.38%EV -6.40%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 38.35%EV -7.19%E -3.05%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.91%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.33%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.05%EV -6.31%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 18:35
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 18:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.21%EV -6.86%E -2.39%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 18:30
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-14 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-14 16:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 18:30
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.58%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 17:40
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-14 18:40
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-14 17:49
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -4.26%E -1.44%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-14 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 18:10
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 18:35
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 18:35
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.37%E -4.58%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 13:40
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 18:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-14 17:55
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-14 17:55
Suprabets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.71%EV -9.94%E -4.34%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.13%EV -8.15%E -2.88%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.15%EV -8.85%E -2.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -10.33%E -4.53%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 18:29
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -10.33%E -4.53%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 14:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -10.33%E -4.53%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -10.33%E -4.53%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 14:55
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -11.51%E -5.12%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.51%E -5.12%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 16:25
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -13.48%E -6.13%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -13.48%E -6.13%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 18:30
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -13.48%E -6.13%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.13%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -13.48%E -6.13%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.70%EV -12.37%E -4.58%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-14 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.73%0.2%2026-09-14 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-09-14 18:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-09-14 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-09-14 18:30
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%1.4%2026-09-14 18:30