The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Montpellier v Dijon

2026-08-08 18:45 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montpellier (Local)

Prediction 48.25%2.07fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.89%48.35%48.28%50.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.871.891.9857.80%53.33%53.05%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dijon (Visit)

Prediction 24.62%4.06fair odd
EV -0.308%
Edge -0.076%
Kelly -0.101%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.36%24.57%24.59%26.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.764.0528.57%26.74%26.60%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -0.789%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.19%27.07%27.12%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.333.6132.26%29.97%30.08%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Montpellier (Local): 48.25%; Dijon (Visit): 24.62%; Draw: 27.13%. For Dijon (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.05, with an expected value of -0.308%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -4.46%E -2.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.05%EV -10.65%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.19%EV -2.06%E -0.570%K -0.789%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 21:45
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.90%E -3.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.00%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 21:09
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.90%E -3.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.38%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 21:04
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.90%E -3.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.38%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 21:05
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.90%E -3.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.38%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 21:05
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.90%E -3.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.38%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 21:04
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.54%EV -6.87%E -3.56%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.85%EV -7.20%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.61%EV -4.50%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 21:09
Marathon Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.83%EV -7.83%E -4.10%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -6.95%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -4.50%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 21:10
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.83%E -4.10%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -6.46%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 21:09
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.83%E -4.10%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.38%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-01 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -8.32%E -4.38%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -4.00%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-01 21:09
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -8.32%E -4.38%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.69%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-01 21:09
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.77%EV -9.76%E -5.22%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.46%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 21:09
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -9.76%E -5.22%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.46%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 21:09
Betclic (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 47.59%EV -9.76%E -5.22%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.86%EV -11.88%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.55%EV -12.37%E -3.83%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-01 21:08
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.78%EV -10.73%E -5.80%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -0.308%E -0.076%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 21:09
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 49.78%EV -10.73%E -5.80%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -0.308%E -0.076%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 21:04
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -10.73%E -5.80%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -6.46%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-01 21:10
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -11.69%E -6.39%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -6.46%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 22:04
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -13.14%E -7.30%K -16.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -13.85%E -3.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -15.90%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-01 21:09
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 49.45%EV -14.11%E -7.93%K -18.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -7.69%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-01 21:10
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.21%EV -15.07%E -8.56%K -19.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.73%EV -10.15%E -2.78%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.06%EV -13.18%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-01 21:10
Unibet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -15.56%E -8.89%K -20.74%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.36%EV -2.77%E -0.701%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-01 21:05
NetBet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 48.94%EV -16.52%E -9.55%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.19%EV -13.85%E -3.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.88%EV -14.54%E -4.62%K -6.76%G +0.000%18.1%2026-08-01 20:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 48.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.17%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.11%16.6%2026-08-01 21:05