Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Montpellier v Dijon

Início: 2026-08-08 18:45 UTC

Final: Montpellier 1–1 Dijon

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Montpellier (Local)

Previsão 49.80%2.01odd justa
EV -3.89%
Vantagem -2.02%
Kelly -4.18%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.80%49.74%49.76%51.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.751.871.871.9357.14%53.39%53.48%51.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Dijon (Visitante)

Previsão 23.10%4.33odd justa
EV -2.07%
Vantagem -0.489%
Kelly -0.640%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.24

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.89%23.14%23.19%24.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.603.923.904.2427.78%25.50%25.64%23.58%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.11%3.69odd justa
EV -2.15%
Vantagem -0.594%
Kelly -0.822%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.61

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.35%27.12%27.06%28.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.373.353.6131.25%29.71%29.85%27.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Montpellier (Local): 49.80%; Dijon (Visitante): 23.10%; Empate: 27.11%. Para Dijon (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.33. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 4.24, com valor esperado de -2.07%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-03 16:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-03 16:59
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:55
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:55
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:50
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:55
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.89%E -2.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 09:55
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.79%EV -4.89%E -2.56%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 18:34
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -4.89%E -2.56%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 07:45
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.38%E -2.83%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -2.42%E -0.671%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -5.38%E -2.83%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 07:25
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -5.88%E -3.11%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.64%EV -2.07%E -0.489%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.59%EV -2.15%E -0.594%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:30
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.57%EV -5.88%E -3.11%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.79%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.64%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -5.88%E -3.11%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -5.88%E -3.11%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 07:50
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -6.46%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 07:25
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -6.46%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 07:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.31%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:33
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 07:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -6.38%E -3.39%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 07:25
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 07:49
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 07:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 07:45
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:35
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 18:19
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.31%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -11.08%E -2.88%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 18:40
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.90%EV -6.88%E -3.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -15.70%E -4.30%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 09:50
Suprabets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.87%EV -7.38%E -3.97%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:38
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.30%EV -7.30%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:34
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 18:38
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 14:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 14:04
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 14:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 14:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 15:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -16.85%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-07 09:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -16.85%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-07 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -7.87%E -4.26%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -16.85%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-07 09:50
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 07:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 18:34
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.91%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 18:34
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -13.39%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -10.36%E -5.76%K -12.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 09:40
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -10.36%E -5.76%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -7.84%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 07:50
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.23%EV -12.85%E -7.35%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 10:49
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.82%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-08-08 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.41%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.02%1.4%2026-08-08 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-08-08 18:40
Matchbook◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.11%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-08-08 18:35
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.22%2.1%2026-08-08 18:40