The School of OddsToulouse v Lyon
Head to Head
Option 1: Toulouse (Local)
Odds
3.1531.75%Min
3.5827.95%Mean
3.6027.78%Median
3.8126.25%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.23%3.963Min
26.71%3.744Max
25.77%3.881Mean
25.78%3.879Median
25.76%3.882IQM
25.74%3.885Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.81 under the IQM model: 25.76%
EV -1.84%Edge -0.484%Kelly -0.656%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Lyon (Visit)
Odds
1.7656.82%Min
1.8952.87%Mean
1.9052.63%Median
2.0149.75%Max
Consensus probabilities
47.80%2.092Min
50.25%1.990Max
48.88%2.046Mean
48.67%2.055Median
48.72%2.052IQM
48.88%2.046Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.01 under the IQM model: 48.72%
EV -2.06%Edge -1.03%Kelly -2.04%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.3030.30%Min
3.6627.30%Mean
3.7027.03%Median
3.9025.64%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.20%4.132Min
26.03%3.842Max
25.35%3.944Mean
25.55%3.914Median
25.51%3.920IQM
25.38%3.940Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.90 under the IQM model: 25.51%
EV -0.501%Edge -0.128%Kelly -0.173%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Toulouse (Local) ▼ | Lyon (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 3.85I 25.97% NM 25.16%EV -0.813% E -0.211% K -0.285% G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28% NM 49.68%EV -4.99% E -2.56% K -5.25% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 25.16%EV -1.78% E -0.461% K -0.623% G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-04 03:10 |
| 1xBet | 3.81I 26.25% NM 25.82%EV -1.84% E -0.484% K -0.656% G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75% NM 48.95%EV -2.06% E -1.03% K -2.04% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 25.23%EV -0.501% E -0.128% K -0.173% G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-07-04 04:09 |
| betfred_uk | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.23%EV -3.39% E -0.904% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36% NM 49.54%EV -6.94% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.23%EV -4.33% E -1.15% K -1.57% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 03:10 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.72%EV -4.68% E -1.26% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02% NM 48.56%EV -4.50% E -2.30% K -4.69% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.72%EV -5.60% E -1.51% K -2.08% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 14:40 |
| SportsBet | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.64%EV -4.68% E -1.26% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08% NM 49.40%EV -6.45% E -3.36% K -7.01% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.96%EV -3.05% E -0.803% K -1.09% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 03:15 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.42%EV -4.68% E -1.26% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.50%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.08%EV -4.33% E -1.15% K -1.57% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 03:10 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.33%EV -4.68% E -1.26% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.33%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.33%EV -5.60% E -1.51% K -2.08% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Sky Bet | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.01%EV -7.25% E -2.01% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36% NM 49.02%EV -6.94% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.97%EV -4.33% E -1.15% K -1.57% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 03:10 |
| Paddy Power | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.74%EV -7.25% E -2.01% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48% NM 49.55%EV -8.89% E -4.75% K -10.21% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.71%EV -4.33% E -1.15% K -1.57% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-05 12:32 |
| FanDuel | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -7.25% E -2.01% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64% NM 50.25%EV -10.83% E -5.92% K -13.05% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.20%EV -3.05% E -0.803% K -1.09% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-04 03:10 |
| LeoVegas | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.22%EV -9.83% E -2.81% K -3.93% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 48.29%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -8.15% E -2.27% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-03 16:20 |
| Bet Victor | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.22%EV -9.83% E -2.81% K -3.93% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 48.29%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -8.15% E -2.27% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 11:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.03%EV -9.83% E -2.81% K -3.93% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 47.95%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.03%EV -10.71% E -3.06% K -4.28% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-03 13:54 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.45I 28.99% NM 26.45%EV -11.12% E -3.22% K -4.54% G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19% NM 48.54%EV -8.40% E -4.47% K -9.54% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 25.00%EV -6.88% E -1.88% K -2.60% G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-03 13:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.85%EV -12.41% E -3.65% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95% NM 48.30%EV -11.32% E -6.22% K -13.81% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.85%EV -13.26% E -3.90% K -5.52% G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-03 15:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.78%EV -12.41% E -3.65% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25% NM 48.43%EV -11.81% E -6.52% K -14.58% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.78%EV -13.26% E -3.90% K -5.52% G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-03 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.15I 31.75% NM 26.71%EV -18.85% E -5.98% K -8.77% G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82% NM 47.80%EV -14.25% E -8.09% K -18.74% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 25.49%EV -15.81% E -4.79% K -6.87% G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-07-03 13:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Toulouse (Local) | Lyon (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.01I 99.01% | 1.01I 99.01% | 1.02I 98.04% | 196.1% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% | 1.01I 99.01% | 1.02I 98.04% | 196.1% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.01I 99.01% | 1.01I 99.01% | 1.02I 98.04% | 196.1% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |