The School of Odds

Toulouse v Lyon

2026-08-22 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

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Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Toulouse (Local)

Prediction 27.88%3.59fair odd
EV -0.188%
Edge -0.052%
Kelly -0.073%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.67%27.98%27.92%29.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.343.403.5833%30%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lyon (Visit)

Prediction 46.41%2.15fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.06%46.39%46.37%47.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.922.012.002.0952%50%50%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV -0.242%
Edge -0.062%
Kelly -0.084%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%25.64%25.71%26.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.603.8830%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.58I 27.93%NM 27.51%EV -0.188%E -0.052%K -0.073%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 47.12%EV -3.01%E -1.44%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.38%EV -0.242%E -0.062%K -0.084%G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-08 09:14
Marathon Bet3.52I 28.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.86%E -0.529%K -0.738%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.07%EV -4.40%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.38%EV -1.79%E -0.467%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-09 16:35
Coolbet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -2.42%E -0.691%K -0.967%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.21%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14%EV -1.01%E -0.263%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-21 00:45
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -2.42%E -0.691%K -0.967%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 14:45
NordicBet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -6.25%E -3.10%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-22 00:35
Betsson3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -3.81%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -6.25%E -3.10%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-22 00:34
Bovada3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-24 15:34
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.04%EV -6.25%E -3.10%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 00:45
Codere (IT)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 08:25
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 00:45
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 00:33
Neds3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 00:34
Ladbrokes (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 00:35
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 00:33
Ladbrokes (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 00:34
Caesars3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 03:52
TAB3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 00:35
betfred_uk3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 00:44
Bally Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 16:34
betPARX3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 16:34
LeoVegas (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 16:45
Svenska Spel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 16:45
Grosvenor3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 17:00
Casumo3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 16:59
Unibet (NL)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 17:04
Unibet (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 17:04
TABtouch3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 17:05
Unibet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 17:14
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 19:59
ATG (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-09 22:49
PMU (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 12:55
LowVig.ag3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -6.60%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.40%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 15:19
BetOnline.ag3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -6.60%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.40%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 15:19
Pinnacle3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -6.60%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.82%EV -6.72%E -3.34%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-06 08:10
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-21 00:45
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 00:45
DraftKings3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-06 17:40
Bet Right3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 00:45
Paddy Power3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 00:42
Bet Victor3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-14 17:13
betano_uk3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-14 17:13
Suprabets3.26I 30.67%NM 28.15%EV -9.11%E -2.79%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.58%EV -8.57%E -4.35%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.28%EV -6.67%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 01:26
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.39%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 08:25
Everygame3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.39%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-13 12:14
Betclic (FR)3.23I 30.96%NM 27.66%EV -9.95%E -3.08%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.06%EV -9.97%E -5.14%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 18:50
LeoVegas3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 12:14
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.43%EV -8.11%E -4.10%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-22 00:35
Virgin Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-09 16:45
LiveScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-09 16:45
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-16 19:20
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-20 11:05
Unibet (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.14%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.43%EV -10.90%E -5.67%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -15.15%E -4.59%K -6.59%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-17 08:25
Winamax (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -14.96%E -4.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.06%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-20 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%4.0%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%4.0%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%4.0%2026-07-25 09:10
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%9.7%2026-07-21 06:15