The School of Odds
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Marseille v Toulouse

2026-11-01 19:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marseille (Local)

Prediction 51.98%1.92fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.648%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.59%51.90%52.08%52.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.811.831.9059.52%55.32%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toulouse (Visit)

Prediction 23.99%4.17fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.522%
Kelly -0.692%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%24.00%23.89%25.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.833.804.0828.99%26.10%26.32%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.03%4.16fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.481%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.10%24.03%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.804.0827.78%26.04%26.32%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marseille (Local): 51.98%; Toulouse (Visit): 23.99%; Draw: 24.03%. For Marseille (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.90, with an expected value of -1.23%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78%EV -1.23%E -0.648%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 24.11%EV -2.13%E -0.522%K -0.692%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 24.11%EV -1.96%E -0.481%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.7%2026-10-18 20:04
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -2.27%E -1.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.65%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -7.49%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 21:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.09%EV -4.53%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.09%EV -4.37%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 19:54
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:09
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:09
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -3.83%E -2.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.29%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:45
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.88%E -0.971%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-18 21:09
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.88%E -0.971%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 21:14
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.88%E -0.971%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 20:50
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.89%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 20:09
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.89%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 21:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.89%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 21:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -4.87%E -2.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.89%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 21:24
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%EV -5.91%E -3.27%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.89%EV -4.77%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -3.88%E -0.971%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 21:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.88%E -0.971%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 19:20
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -6.29%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-18 21:13
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -6.43%E -3.57%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.89%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 19:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -6.29%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 21:14
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.09%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -6.29%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 21:15
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 22:14
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -7.99%E -4.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 23:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -8.51%E -4.83%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -7.49%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 19:20
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -9.03%E -5.16%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -8.69%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-18 21:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.13%EV -11.11%E -6.50%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -11.09%E -3.00%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 19:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.77%EV -11.63%E -6.84%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.79%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -13.50%E -3.75%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-18 19:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.19%EV -12.67%E -7.54%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.93%EV -17.24%E -5.00%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.89%EV -13.50%E -3.75%K -5.19%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-18 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.99%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.0%2026-10-18 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%170.3%2026-10-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%170.3%2026-10-18 23:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 22:10