Language:English
RC Lens v Toulouse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
RC Lens (Local)
Prediction 60.64%1.65fair odd
EV -4.79%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -8.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.57%60.69%60.50%63.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.511.5768.97%66.24%66.23%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toulouse (Visit)
Prediction 16.93%5.90fair odd
EV +10.08%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +1.83%
Growth +0.185%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.75%16.93%17.05%18.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.655.806.5020.00%17.69%17.24%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.42%4.46fair odd
EV +0.893%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.255%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.31%22.38%22.44%23.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.194.254.5025.64%23.86%23.53%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RC Lens (Local): 60.64%; Toulouse (Visit): 16.93%; Draw: 22.42%. For Toulouse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.90. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.93%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV +10.08%E +1.55%K +1.83%G +0.185% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV +0.893%E +0.198%K +0.255%G +0.002% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 18:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.10%EV -8.43%E -5.58%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +5.84%E +0.935%K +1.11%G +0.065% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 18:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.86%EV -8.43%E -5.58%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.56%EV +3.30%E +0.542%K +0.648%G +0.021% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.86%EV -8.43%E -5.58%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.56%EV +3.30%E +0.542%K +0.648%G +0.021% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.70%EV -8.43%E -5.58%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -1.35%E -0.307%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.70%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -2.47%E -0.568%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -9.64%E -6.47%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.59%E -0.835%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -9.64%E -6.47%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.59%E -0.835%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -9.64%E -6.47%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.59%E -0.835%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -9.64%E -6.47%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.59%E -0.835%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -10.25%E -6.92%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -4.71%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +1.61%E +0.268%K +0.322%G +0.005% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.27%EV -4.79%E -3.05%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 5.94I 16.84%NM 16.20%EV +0.594%E +0.100%K +0.120%G +0.001% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.53%EV -4.26%E -0.999%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.53%EV -10.85%E -7.38%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -1.78%E -0.306%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -4.71%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.69%EV -12.07%E -8.32%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -1.78%E -0.306%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.83%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -7.21%E -4.72%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -5.16%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.08%E -1.97%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -6.00%E -3.87%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -4.71%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-21 18:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -6.00%E -3.87%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -8.55%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -5.83%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.82%E -5.15%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.22%EV -8.55%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -3.59%E -0.835%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.82%E -5.15%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.22%EV -8.55%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -3.59%E -0.835%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -6.00%E -3.87%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.21%E -4.72%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.21%E -4.72%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.21%E -4.72%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.21%E -4.72%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.56%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.02%EV -10.25%E -6.92%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-21 15:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.02%EV -10.25%E -6.92%K -21.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -10.32%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-21 15:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 0.7% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 0.7% | 2026-04-21 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 0.7% | 2026-04-21 19:05 |