L’École des cotes

IF Gnistan v IFK Mariehamn

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-11 14:02 UTC

Score final : IF Gnistan 4–2 IFK Mariehamn

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

IF Gnistan (Local)

Prévision 71.33%1.40cote équitable
EV -1.56%
Avantage -1.13%
Kelly -4.11%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.38

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.19%71.22%71.42%72.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.251.301.301.3880.00%76.82%76.92%72.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

IFK Mariehamn (Visiteur)

Prévision 11.10%9.01cote équitable
EV -1.22%
Avantage -0.137%
Kelly -0.154%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 8.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.47%11.18%10.93%12.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.008.098.008.9014.29%12.36%12.50%11.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.57%5.69cote équitable
EV -0.554%
Avantage -0.098%
Kelly -0.119%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.73%17.60%17.64%18.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.755.115.005.6621.05%19.59%20.00%17.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
GTbets1.38I 72.46%NM 69.98%EV -1.56%E -1.13%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.49I 11.78%NM 11.38%EV -5.77%E -0.680%K -0.770%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.64%EV -8.99%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-11 13:59
Pinnacle1.33I 75.19%NM 72.21%EV -5.13%E -3.86%K -15.54%G +0.000%8.88I 11.26%NM 10.82%EV -1.44%E -0.162%K -0.183%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 16.97%EV -0.554%E -0.098%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 13:59
BetMGM1.33I 75.19%NM 70.69%EV -5.13%E -3.86%K -15.54%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.40%EV -8.43%E -1.02%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.76%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -5.13%E -3.86%K -15.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.76%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 14:00
DraftKings1.32I 75.76%NM 71.17%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 13:59
BetUS1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -5.12%E -0.949%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 13:59
NordicBet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -2.33%E -0.265%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -13.03%E -2.63%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 13:58
Betsson1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -2.33%E -0.265%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -13.03%E -2.63%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 13:57
Unibet1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Casumo1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Grosvenor1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (NL)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
TABtouch1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
betPARX1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Svenska Spel1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
ATG (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
BetRivers1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-11 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -5.84%E -4.43%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Bovada1.31I 76.34%NM 71.11%EV -6.56%E -5.00%K -21.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -5.12%E -0.949%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 14:00
BetOnline.ag1.30I 76.92%NM 72.07%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.55%E -0.529%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 13:59
LowVig.ag1.30I 76.92%NM 72.07%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.55%E -0.529%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 13:59
BetAnything1.30I 76.92%NM 72.07%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.55%E -0.529%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 13:59
1xBet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.77I 11.40%NM 10.68%EV -2.66%E -0.304%K -0.343%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.28%EV -4.77%E -0.880%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 13:59
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
888sport (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 70.37%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.04%EV -15.65%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -8.64%E -1.66%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 13:59
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 13:59
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 69.65%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.68%EV -13.98%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.67%EV -14.79%E -3.05%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 13:58
Neds1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.66%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.66%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Coral1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.66%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.27%E -5.59%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.66%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Marathon Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.26%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.47%EV -1.22%E -0.137%K -0.154%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -5.12%E -0.949%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 13:59
FanDuel1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 13:59
Betway1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 13:58
PointsBet (AU)1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -7.76%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Bet Right1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Bet Victor1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 13:58
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-11 13:59
BoyleSports1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -7.98%E -6.19%K -27.53%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-11 13:59
Betr (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.60%EV -8.70%E -6.79%K -31.06%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.95%EV -8.43%E -1.02%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -13.91%E -2.84%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Tipico (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.45%EV -9.41%E -7.41%K -34.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -3.37%E -0.612%K -0.748%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
SportsBet1.27I 78.74%NM 71.99%EV -9.41%E -7.41%K -34.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.25%EV -6.88%E -1.30%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-11 13:59
PMU (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.91%EV -10.12%E -8.03%K -38.93%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -16.76%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35%EV -15.66%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.19%EV -10.12%E -8.03%K -38.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.45%EV -22.31%E -3.19%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.35%EV -16.54%E -3.48%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-11 13:58
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -10.84%E -8.67%K -43.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -5.66%E -0.666%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-11 13:57
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.84%E -8.67%K -43.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-11 13:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.84%E -8.67%K -43.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -11.21%E -1.40%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.15%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-11 13:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 73.24%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.60%0.4%2026-07-11 13:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.03%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.13%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83%0.7%2026-07-11 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.03%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.13%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83%0.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.03%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.13%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83%0.7%2026-07-11 14:00