The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sweden v Poland

Kickoff: 2026-03-31 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sweden (Local)

Prediction 47.23%2.12fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.06%47.31%47.23%48.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.992.002.0853.19%50.33%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Poland (Visit)

Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV +1.31%
Edge +0.319%
Kelly +0.423%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.68%24.73%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.754.1028.57%26.66%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV -0.659%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.259%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%28.01%28.04%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.5432.26%30.21%30.30%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sweden (Local): 47.23%; Poland (Visit): 24.71%; Draw: 28.06%. For Poland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.24%EV -5.07%E -2.52%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV +1.31%E +0.319%K +0.423%G +0.006%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%EV -3.18%E -0.923%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-27 14:20
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 47.33%EV -1.77%E -0.849%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.86%EV -2.15%E -0.543%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.81%EV -0.659%E -0.186%K -0.259%G +0.000%1.6%2026-03-28 03:05
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.40%E -0.607%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 15:44
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.40%E -0.607%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 15:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.29%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -3.63%E -0.931%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.86%EV -2.34%E -0.673%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-28 02:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.14%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.86%EV -5.36%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-27 22:45
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.11%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.91%EV -5.61%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 16:35
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -6.49%E -3.28%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.17%EV -6.83%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.69%EV -9.32%E -4.86%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -1.78%E -0.509%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-27 17:24
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-27 15:49
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-27 14:05
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-27 17:24
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 14:44
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-27 16:43
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-27 17:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-27 17:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-27 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-27 15:59
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -10.27%E -5.40%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -3.18%E -0.923%K -1.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 17:24
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-27 17:13
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-27 17:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-27 17:25
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.27%EV -6.49%E -3.28%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.81%E -2.69%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-27 15:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.35%EV -11.21%E -5.96%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.39%EV -9.81%E -2.69%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -11.60%E -3.68%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-27 17:23
Dabble (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-27 13:19
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-27 15:14
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-27 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-27 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-27 15:30
ReBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.07%EV -6.96%E -3.53%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 28.72%EV -11.32%E -3.58%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-27 17:24
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -9.80%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.52%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-27 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-03-27 23:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-03-27 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-03-27 23:40
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%2.9%2026-03-27 22:15