La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Sweden v Poland
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sweden (Local)
Predicción 47.23%2.12momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -0.849%
Kelly -1.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.06%47.31%47.23%48.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.881.992.002.0853.19%50.33%50.00%48.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Poland (Visitante)
Predicción 24.71%4.05momio equitativo
EV +1.31%
Ventaja +0.319%
Kelly +0.423%
Crecimiento +0.006%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.65%24.68%24.73%25.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.753.754.1028.57%26.66%26.67%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.06%3.56momio equitativo
EV -0.659%
Ventaja -0.186%
Kelly -0.259%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.71%28.01%28.04%28.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.313.303.5432.26%30.21%30.30%28.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (34 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.24%EV -5.07%E -2.52%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV +1.31%E +0.319%K +0.423%G +0.006% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%EV -3.18%E -0.923%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-27 14:20 |
| 1xBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.33%EV -1.77%E -0.849%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.86%EV -2.15%E -0.543%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.81%EV -0.659%E -0.186%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| NordicBet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.40%E -0.607%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 15:44 |
| Betsson | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.40%E -0.607%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 15:44 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.29%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -3.63%E -0.931%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.86%EV -2.34%E -0.673%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-28 02:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.14%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.86%EV -5.36%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.11%EV -4.60%E -2.28%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.91%EV -5.61%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 16:35 |
| FanDuel | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-27 14:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -6.49%E -3.28%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.17%EV -6.83%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-27 18:44 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.69%EV -9.32%E -4.86%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -1.78%E -0.509%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| TAB | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-27 15:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.10%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-27 14:05 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| Betway | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-27 14:44 |
| Bovada | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-27 16:43 |
| Neds | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-27 17:25 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-27 15:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-27 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -10.27%E -5.40%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -3.18%E -0.923%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| Bet Victor | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-27 17:13 |
| PlayUp | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-27 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-27 17:25 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.91%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-27 17:25 |
| Bet Right | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.27%EV -6.49%E -3.28%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.81%E -2.69%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-27 15:59 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.35%EV -11.21%E -5.96%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.39%EV -9.81%E -2.69%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -11.60%E -3.68%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-27 17:23 |
| Dabble (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-27 13:19 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-27 15:14 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-27 15:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-27 15:30 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-27 15:30 |
| ReBet | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.07%EV -6.96%E -3.53%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 28.72%EV -11.32%E -3.58%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -9.80%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.52%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-27 14:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15% | 1.5% | 2026-03-27 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15% | 1.5% | 2026-03-27 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15% | 1.5% | 2026-03-27 23:40 |
| Smarkets | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17% | 2.9% | 2026-03-27 22:15 |