Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Newcastle United v Arsenal

2026-11-21 17:30 UTC — EPL

Résultat du match

35 opérateurs (9 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Newcastle United (Local)

Prévision 17.94%5.57cote équitable
EV +3.14%
Avantage +0.546%
Kelly +0.661%
Croissance +0.021%

avec la cote maximale 5.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.86%17.87%17.91%19.49%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.405.285.305.7522.73%18.93%18.87%17.39%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Arsenal (Visiteur)

Prévision 59.42%1.68cote équitable
EV -2.55%
Avantage -1.55%
Kelly -3.98%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.64

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
57.84%59.42%59.53%60.89%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.431.571.571.6469.93%63.80%63.69%60.98%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 22.64%4.42cote équitable
EV +0.063%
Avantage +0.014%
Kelly +0.018%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.81%22.71%22.56%23.92%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.804.124.104.4226.32%24.29%24.39%22.62%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : Newcastle United (Local) : 17.94% ; Arsenal (Visiteur) : 59.42% ; Match nul : 22.64%. Pour Newcastle United (Local), cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 5.57. 7 opérateurs proposent une cote supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure cote disponible est 5.75, pour une espérance positive de +3.14%.

Cotes des opérateurs (35 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%EV +3.14%E +0.546%K +0.661%G +0.021%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-02 12:19
Unibet (NL)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%EV +3.14%E +0.546%K +0.661%G +0.021%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-02 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%EV +3.14%E +0.546%K +0.661%G +0.021%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-02 12:19
Svenska Spel🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%EV +3.14%E +0.546%K +0.661%G +0.021%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-02 12:19
BetRivers🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV +0.451%E +0.081%K +0.098%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.70%E -4.27%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-02 12:20
Bally Bet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV +0.451%E +0.081%K +0.098%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.70%E -4.27%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-02 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.88%EV +0.451%E +0.081%K +0.098%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-02 12:20
1xBet🎯5.54I 18.05%NM 17.76%EV -0.625%E -0.113%K -0.138%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.99%EV -2.55%E -1.55%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 22.26%EV +0.063%E +0.014%K +0.018%G +0.000%1.7%2026-11-02 12:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.39%EV -1.34%E -0.244%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-02 12:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -1.34%E -0.244%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.12%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49%EV -3.79%E -0.891%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-02 12:44
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -1.34%E -0.244%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -6.70%E -4.27%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV -1.97%E -0.456%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-02 12:19
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -1.34%E -0.244%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.89%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-02 12:19
Grosvenor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -1.34%E -0.244%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.18%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-02 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.76%EV -3.14%E -0.581%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.94%EV -4.92%E -3.08%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-02 12:19
betPARX🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -3.14%E -0.581%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.30%E -4.68%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.18%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-02 12:20
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -4.93%E -0.930%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-02 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -4.93%E -0.930%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-02 12:19
Virgin Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -4.93%E -0.930%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-02 12:20
TABtouch🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -4.93%E -0.930%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.68%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 12:20
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -5.83%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -5.52%E -3.47%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -2.65%E -0.617%K -0.804%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-02 12:20
Betr (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -5.83%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.78%EV -6.11%E -3.87%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -3.79%E -0.891%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-02 12:19
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -5.83%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.11%E -3.87%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-02 12:20
Dabble (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -5.83%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 12:20
PMU (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV -8.52%E -1.67%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.41%EV -10.27%E -6.80%K -20.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-02 12:20
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -3.73%E -2.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-02 12:20
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -4.33%E -2.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-02 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -4.33%E -2.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-02 12:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -4.33%E -2.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-02 12:20
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.70%E -4.27%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-02 15:29
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -7.18%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-02 13:39
ReBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.31%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -7.89%E -5.09%K -14.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-02 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -12.11%E -2.47%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 12:20
Unibet (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.60%EV -12.11%E -2.47%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.30%EV -15.02%E -10.51%K -34.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.11%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%16.0%2026-11-02 12:19
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.44%EV -14.80%E -3.11%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.80%EV -11.46%E -7.69%K -23.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.76%EV -12.84%E -3.34%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-02 12:19
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.49%EV -21.07%E -4.79%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 57.94%EV -12.05%E -8.14%K -25.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.57%EV -13.97%E -3.68%K -4.99%G +0.000%16.6%2026-11-02 12:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.