Language:English
York City v Swindon Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
York City (Local)
Prediction 57.05%1.75fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -6.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.71%57.03%56.93%59.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.631.6864.52%61.41%61.35%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Swindon Town (Visit)
Prediction 19.82%5.05fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.548%
Kelly -0.688%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.77%19.77%19.86%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.594.604.9122.73%21.77%21.74%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.13%4.32fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.20%23.21%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.924.2027.78%25.67%25.48%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: York City (Local): 57.05%; Swindon Town (Visit): 19.82%; Draw: 23.13%. For Swindon Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.91, with an expected value of -2.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -4.15%E -2.47%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.71%EV -4.15%E -2.47%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.76%EV -7.84%E -1.69%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -16.74%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 20:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.71%EV -4.15%E -2.47%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.76%EV -7.84%E -1.69%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -16.74%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 20:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.80%EV -4.72%E -2.83%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -2.86%E -0.680%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-08 04:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -4.72%E -2.83%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-07 08:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -4.72%E -2.83%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-07 08:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -4.72%E -2.83%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 08:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -4.72%E -2.83%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 08:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.15%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 15:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 14:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-08 04:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-07 08:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-06 08:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -9.80%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-08 03:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -12.11%E -3.19%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -12.11%E -3.19%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -12.11%E -3.19%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -5.86%E -3.55%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -12.11%E -3.19%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.27%EV -6.43%E -3.92%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -9.80%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 15:12 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.27%EV -6.43%E -3.92%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -9.80%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.34%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.64%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 04:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.29%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.03%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -15.58%E -4.27%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-07 20:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.22%EV -7.01%E -4.30%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -12.80%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -7.58%E -4.68%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -4.87%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.55%EV -7.58%E -4.68%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -4.87%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -6.33%E -1.56%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 17:21 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -7.58%E -4.68%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 15:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -7.58%E -4.68%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -9.80%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -7.58%E -4.68%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -12.80%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -8.64%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-07 08:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -7.58%E -4.68%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -12.80%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -14.42%E -3.90%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.30%EV -8.15%E -5.06%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -8.15%E -5.06%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -9.80%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-06 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -8.72%E -5.45%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.91I 20.37%NM 19.08%EV -2.69%E -0.548%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.36%EV -3.09%E -0.737%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.97%EV -8.72%E -5.45%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.12%EV -3.88%E -0.800%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.90%EV -6.33%E -1.56%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -8.72%E -5.45%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -8.72%E -5.45%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.83%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-09 17:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -8.72%E -5.45%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -12.80%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%EV -15.58%E -4.27%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -8.72%E -5.45%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -12.80%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%EV -15.58%E -4.27%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-08 07:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 56.79%EV -9.29%E -5.84%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.80%E -2.51%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-07 12:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -10.43%E -6.64%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -2.86%E -0.680%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.92%EV -10.43%E -6.64%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.92%EV -10.43%E -6.64%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 17:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -11.57%E -7.46%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -2.89%E -0.589%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -2.86%E -0.680%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -11.57%E -7.46%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-09 15:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.24% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.68% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08% | 2.9% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.79% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.65% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56% | 3.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.94% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.59% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.5% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.94% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.59% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.5% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.71% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.65% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64% | 5.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |