Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Swindon Town v Cheltenham Town

Início: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC

Final: Swindon Town 2–1 Cheltenham Town

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Swindon Town (Local)

Previsão 47.61%2.10odd justa
EV -4.78%
Vantagem -2.39%
Kelly -4.78%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.69%47.87%47.61%51.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.721.901.952.0058.14%52.60%51.28%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cheltenham Town (Visitante)

Previsão 25.40%3.94odd justa
EV +1.58%
Vantagem +0.396%
Kelly +0.528%
Crescimento +0.008%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.65%25.17%25.41%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.753.704.0028.57%26.70%27.03%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.99%3.70odd justa
EV -2.83%
Vantagem -0.785%
Kelly -1.09%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.88%26.97%26.98%28.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.433.453.6030.77%29.15%28.99%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Swindon Town (Local): 47.61%; Cheltenham Town (Visitante): 25.40%; Empate: 26.99%. Para Cheltenham Town (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.94. 11 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.58%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:04
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:04
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:05
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:04
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:05
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -16.20%E -9.21%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV +1.58%E +0.396%K +0.528%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 07:04
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.27%EV -16.68%E -9.53%K -22.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.72%EV +0.315%E +0.080%K +0.107%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -6.88%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-22 07:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.42%EV -17.16%E -9.86%K -23.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.65%EV +0.315%E +0.080%K +0.107%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -6.88%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 07:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -12.87%E -7.03%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -0.955%E -0.245%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 12:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.36%EV -18.11%E -10.53%K -25.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -0.955%E -0.245%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 07:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.36%EV -18.11%E -10.53%K -25.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -0.955%E -0.245%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 07:05
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.15%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -1.72%E -0.444%K -0.598%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.99%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 12:25
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.49%E -0.920%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 13:30
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.49%E -0.920%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 12:09
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -8.59%E -4.47%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.49%E -0.920%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -3.49%E -0.920%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:50
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -2.83%E -0.785%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.23%EV -8.59%E -4.47%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -7.69%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 13:13
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 13:10
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 09:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.60%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 09:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 09:05
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 13:50
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 09:04
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 09:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 09:04
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 09:04
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 08:40
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 08:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.94%EV -5.25%E -2.64%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 09:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.94%EV -5.25%E -2.64%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 09:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.83%E -0.785%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 09:30
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.83%E -0.785%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 09:29
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 09:30
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 12:25
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -5.73%E -2.89%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 09:04
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 12:25
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 13:53
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 09:10
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.27%E -3.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 12:24
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.27%E -3.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.27%E -3.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.27%E -3.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 12:25
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.08%EV -8.59%E -4.47%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -12.27%E -3.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.17%EV -8.11%E -4.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -9.58%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 09:24
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.88%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.23%E -2.42%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 09:30
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.53%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 09:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Matchbook◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-08-22 13:50