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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Salford City v Swindon Town

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Salford City 1–0 Swindon Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Salford City (Local)

Predicción 60.46%1.65momio equitativo
EV -4.47%
Ventaja -2.83%
Kelly -7.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.15%60.33%60.47%61.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.481.551.551.5867.57%64.67%64.52%63.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Swindon Town (Visitante)

Predicción 17.96%5.57momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.222%
Kelly -0.271%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.68%17.98%17.95%19.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.805.135.105.5020.83%19.50%19.61%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.58%4.63momio equitativo
EV -2.90%
Ventaja -0.644%
Kelly -0.827%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.41%21.68%21.58%23.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.224.254.5025.97%23.71%23.53%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Salford City (Local): 60.46%; Swindon Town (Visitante): 17.96%; Empate: 21.58%. Para Swindon Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.57. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 5.50, con un valor esperado de -1.22%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -4.47%E -2.83%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -6.13%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 17:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -4.47%E -2.83%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -4.47%E -2.83%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 00:20
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -4.47%E -2.83%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 00:20
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -5.05%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 07:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 17:45
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 17:50
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -8.29%E -1.95%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -8.29%E -1.95%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 17:49
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.00%E -2.45%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-17 17:45
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -8.41%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 00:20
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.69%E -3.42%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 18:00
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.69%E -3.42%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 18:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.69%E -3.42%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 18:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.69%E -3.42%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 18:04
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.827%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 14:00
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.24%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.20%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.25%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -5.05%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 11:01
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.827%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:20
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -3.02%E -0.559%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -12.61%E -3.11%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -3.02%E -0.559%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -12.61%E -3.11%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 14:10
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.30%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.58%EV -3.56%E -0.662%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.12%EV -3.54%E -0.793%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 15:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 15:27
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 15:29
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.37%E -2.23%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 07:26
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-17 17:45
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.46%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -14.76%E -3.74%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-17 00:20
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.827%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-17 11:01
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 17:55
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 17:54
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 11:00
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.80%EV -8.29%E -1.95%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.61%EV -7.49%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -13.79%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -14.76%E -3.74%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-17 00:20
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -8.10%E -5.33%K -15.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -16.92%E -4.40%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-17 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.97%EV -8.70%E -5.76%K -17.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -4.81%E -0.908%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.66%EV -8.29%E -1.95%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 18:00
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -8.70%E -5.76%K -17.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -9.37%E -2.23%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 11:01
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -5.05%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -6.61%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -5.05%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:49
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.827%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -8.29%E -1.95%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-17 11:01
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.20%E -2.04%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 17:45
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.99%EV -10.52%E -7.11%K -21.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -1.22%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 14:15
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -10.52%E -7.11%K -21.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -5.71%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -9.37%E -2.23%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-17 11:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.97%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.22%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-09-18 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.97%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.22%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-09-18 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.97%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.22%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-09-18 13:45
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.12%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.16%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.73%2.3%2026-09-18 15:00
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.63%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.32%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.05%3.1%2026-09-18 14:20