Language:English
Port Vale v Crewe Alexandra
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Vale (Local)
Prediction 41.60%2.40fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.38%41.62%41.60%42.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.202.3047.62%45.11%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Crewe Alexandra (Visit)
Prediction 30.30%3.30fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.813%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%30.30%30.25%31.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.033.023.2435.09%32.98%33.06%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.657%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%28.08%28.15%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.5032.26%30.06%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 41.60%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 30.30%; Draw: 28.10%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -4.33%E -1.88%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.65%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.44%EV -1.82%E -0.562%K -0.813%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.91%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-29 11:06 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.26%EV -5.99%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.55%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.26%EV -5.99%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.55%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 03:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.55%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 11:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 11:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-29 03:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-29 11:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.41%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-29 03:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.70%EV -6.83%E -3.05%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.38%EV -3.64%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 28.92%EV -9.23%E -2.86%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 11:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.54%EV -7.24%E -3.25%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.69%EV -5.46%E -1.75%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.77%EV -9.51%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-29 11:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.66%E -3.45%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.66%E -3.45%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 02:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 02:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 05:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 05:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 06:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 06:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 06:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 06:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.64%E -0.469%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-25 06:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.67%E -2.67%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-29 11:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -8.67%E -2.67%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-29 03:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-29 11:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.88%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.49%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 41.62%EV -8.91%E -4.07%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -7.58%E -2.48%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -10.57%E -4.92%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-29 03:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.57%E -4.92%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.12%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-29 03:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.15%EV -10.99%E -5.13%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.32%EV -12.73%E -4.42%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-25 05:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -11.82%E -5.57%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -13.64%E -4.79%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -5.86%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-25 05:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -12.65%E -6.02%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-29 11:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.14%EV -12.65%E -6.02%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -13.64%E -4.79%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-25 05:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.14%EV -12.65%E -6.02%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -13.64%E -4.79%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-25 05:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 1.4% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.85% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16% | 1.5% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.85% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16% | 1.5% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.85% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16% | 1.5% | 2026-08-29 11:25 |