The School of Odds
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Port Vale v Crewe Alexandra

2026-08-29 11:30 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Vale (Local)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -4.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%43.09%42.89%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.2048.78%46.72%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crewe Alexandra (Visit)

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.664%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.70%29.65%29.81%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.103.3033.33%32.05%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.30%3.66fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.716%
Kelly -0.994%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.35%27.26%27.30%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.353.303.5730.77%29.82%30.30%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Port Vale (Local): 42.86%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 29.84%; Draw: 27.30%. For Crewe Alexandra (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -1.53%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -3.02%E -0.929%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 21:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 21:49
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.36%EV -2.55%E -0.716%K -0.994%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 22:30
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.74%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -6.90%E -2.21%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 21:22
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -6.98%E -3.22%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 21:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.88%EV -7.41%E -3.43%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 21:49
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 21:44
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 21:40
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 21:50
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 21:39
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 21:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 21:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 21:39
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -9.13%E -4.31%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.98%E -4.75%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -1.53%E -0.463%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 21:49
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.98%E -4.75%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 21:55
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.98%E -4.75%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 21:48
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.98%E -4.75%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.44%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -3.02%E -0.929%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 21:50
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -12.13%E -5.92%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -1.53%E -0.463%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 22:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 43.31%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.58%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.11%16.6%2026-08-22 21:50

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