The School of Odds

Northampton Town v Swindon Town

2026-08-15 14:00 UTC — League 2

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Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Northampton Town (Local)

Prediction 43.37%2.31fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.43%43.31%43.20%44.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.102.2049%47%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Swindon Town (Visit)

Prediction 29.54%3.39fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.86%29.58%29.63%30.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.2034%32%32%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.09%3.69fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.22%27.11%27.16%28.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.363.353.5031%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.47%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 05:18
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.47%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 15:43
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.47%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 05:15
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 15:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 18:25
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.46%E -2.51%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -9.90%E -3.25%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.52%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 02:45
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.46%E -2.51%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -9.90%E -3.25%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.52%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 02:44
1xBet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -5.90%E -2.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.67%EV -7.25%E -2.31%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 12:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.47%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 05:15
Marathon Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.08%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -7.84%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 12:24
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 18:04
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-18 05:15
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -11.38%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-20 19:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-19 02:49
betano_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.76%E -3.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-19 02:50
SportsBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -8.06%E -3.80%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-18 05:15
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.47%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-16 18:45
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.47%E -1.71%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 12:55
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-24 08:34
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-18 05:15
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 10:29
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 11:29
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 23:29
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-30 23:39
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.38%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-18 05:15
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -9.80%E -4.71%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-21 16:35
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 44.05%EV -10.67%E -5.18%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-30 05:49
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -9.90%E -3.25%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -6.52%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-22 15:19
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 05:49
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 05:49
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:09
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:10
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:20
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet (NL)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:19
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:19
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:19
Unibet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 06:30
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 09:09
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 09:29
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.43%E -2.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.23%E -2.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 11:29
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -14.34%E -4.94%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -11.94%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-30 05:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%10.7%2026-07-08 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-30 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-30 15:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-30 15:20