Language:English
Northampton Town v Swindon Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Northampton Town (Local)
Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.49%42.65%42.79%43.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.172.152.2749.02%46.18%46.51%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Swindon Town (Visit)
Prediction 29.87%3.35fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%29.91%29.81%31.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2033.33%32.12%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.61%27.44%27.40%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.303.5331.25%29.97%30.30%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northampton Town (Local): 42.66%; Swindon Town (Visit): 29.87%; Draw: 27.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.53, with an expected value of -3.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.02%EV -3.15%E -1.39%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.97%EV -8.01%E -2.60%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.02%EV -3.03%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 13:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.90%E -2.92%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.90%E -2.92%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.90%E -2.92%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.32%EV -5.71%E -2.59%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -5.92%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 13:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.51%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.98%EV -6.81%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 13:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.51%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.98%EV -6.81%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 13:38 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 13:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -7.42%E -3.42%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.92%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.50%EV -6.22%E -1.98%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.41%EV -7.15%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 13:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -5.92%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -5.92%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.90%E -2.92%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-15 13:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -8.90%E -2.92%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-15 13:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.73%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.42%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.40%E -3.47%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.61%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.56%EV -12.97%E -6.36%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -12.10%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.56%EV -12.97%E -6.36%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -7.41%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -12.10%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-09 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 13:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83% | 1.2% | 2026-08-15 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 13:50 |