The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Colchester United v Crewe Alexandra

2026-09-12 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colchester United (Local)

Prediction 44.15%2.27fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.62%43.99%44.21%44.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.102.2048.78%47.30%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crewe Alexandra (Visit)

Prediction 29.04%3.44fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.62%29.13%29.02%30.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.153.2733.33%31.76%31.75%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.59%26.87%26.77%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.413.403.5330.77%29.31%29.41%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Colchester United (Local): 44.15%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 29.04%; Draw: 26.81%. For Colchester United (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -2.87%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -2.87%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -2.87%E -1.31%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:04
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -4.20%E -1.93%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -5.08%E -2.36%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -11.43%E -3.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -6.40%E -3.02%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.58%EV -6.85%E -3.24%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.77%EV -5.04%E -1.54%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.65%EV -5.36%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.12%EV -6.85%E -3.24%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.82%EV -6.20%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.06%EV -7.77%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.29%E -3.47%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.16%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:04
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.29%E -3.47%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.52%E -3.49%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-05 23:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.29%E -3.47%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.52%E -3.49%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.29%E -3.47%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.29%E -3.47%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -7.29%E -3.47%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.88%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.86%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.31%EV -7.73%E -3.70%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.76%EV -6.49%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.92%EV -7.77%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.84%EV -8.17%E -3.93%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.22%EV -10.18%E -3.04%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.25%EV -9.05%E -4.40%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.50%E -4.63%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.84%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 43.53%2.96I 33.78%NM 29.12%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.36%16.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-09-05 23:05