La escuela de los momios

Chesterfield FC v Cheltenham Town

Inicio: 2026-04-03 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chesterfield FC (Local)

Predicción 59.88%1.67momio equitativo
EV -4.20%
Ventaja -2.62%
Kelly -7.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.21%59.85%59.74%61.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.561.571.6066.67%64.26%63.69%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Cheltenham Town (Visitante)

Predicción 16.58%6.03momio equitativo
EV +0.476%
Ventaja +0.079%
Kelly +0.094%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.57%16.59%16.70%18.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.435.506.0620.41%18.43%18.18%16.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.54%4.25momio equitativo
EV +1.94%
Ventaja +0.449%
Kelly +0.584%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.40%23.56%23.56%25.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.943.954.3329.41%25.41%25.32%23.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -10.19%E -6.79%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV +1.94%E +0.449%K +0.584%G +0.011%7.9%2026-04-03 13:39
Pinnacle1.55I 64.52%NM 61.34%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.06I 16.50%NM 15.69%EV +0.476%E +0.079%K +0.094%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.97%EV -2.53%E -0.611%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-03 13:55
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 60.81%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV -0.518%E -0.086%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -3.47%E -0.847%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-03 13:34
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 60.81%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV -0.518%E -0.086%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -3.47%E -0.847%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-03 13:34
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -4.20%E -2.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 13:40
DraftKings1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -4.80%E -3.02%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-03 13:35
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -0.518%E -0.086%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 13:40
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -5.40%E -3.42%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 13:35
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -4.66%E -0.811%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 13:55
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -6.59%E -4.23%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 13:34
Unibet1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -5.40%E -3.42%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 13:55
Casumo1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:55
BetRivers1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:55
Unibet (NL)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:55
Unibet (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:54
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:55
Grosvenor1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:54
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:55
Svenska Spel1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:55
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:54
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.19%E -6.79%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-03 13:40
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.19%E -6.79%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-03 13:39
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.19%E -6.79%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-03 13:34
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -2.18%E -0.369%K -0.444%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 13:35
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -2.18%E -0.369%K -0.444%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 13:35
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.21%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.65%EV -18.76%E -3.83%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:55
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.21%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.65%EV -18.76%E -3.83%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-03 13:54
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 58.37%EV -6.59%E -4.23%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -18.76%E -3.83%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-03 13:55
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 60.93%EV -8.99%E -5.91%K -17.29%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.57%EV -1.35%E -0.226%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.51%EV -7.24%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -4.20%E -2.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 13:34
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 13:34
PointsBet (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -7.79%E -5.06%K -14.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 13:35
theScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 58.92%EV -6.59%E -4.23%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -12.95%E -2.47%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 10:55
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -8.99%E -5.91%K -17.29%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV -5.49%E -0.964%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 13:54
BetUS1.54I 64.94%NM 59.52%EV -7.79%E -5.06%K -14.43%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.97%EV -10.47%E -1.94%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 13:45
1xBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.34%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.99I 16.69%NM 15.61%EV -0.684%E -0.114%K -0.137%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.04%EV -8.41%E -2.16%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 13:50
Bet Right1.54I 64.94%NM 59.52%EV -7.79%E -5.06%K -14.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 13:34
Codere (IT)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.39%E -5.48%K -15.83%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -10.47%E -1.94%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 13:55
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -10.19%E -6.79%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.23%EV -4.20%E -2.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -10.47%E -1.94%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 13:35
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 58.23%EV -4.20%E -2.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -10.47%E -1.94%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 13:35
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 58.56%EV -4.80%E -3.02%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.93%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 13:44
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 13:35
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 13:35
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 13:35
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.99%E -3.82%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 13:35
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 13:35
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.46%EV -8.99%E -5.91%K -17.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -11.71%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-03 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.35%EV -10.19%E -6.79%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.91%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.74%EV -19.95%E -5.87%K -8.31%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-03 13:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-04-03 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-04-03 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-04-03 13:45
Matchbook1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-04-03 13:40
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 61.80%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.35%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.8%2026-04-03 13:55