The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Luton v Doncaster Rovers

2026-10-03 14:00 UTC — League 1

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luton (Local)

Prediction 51.10%1.96fair odd
EV -5.46%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -6.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.25%51.13%51.11%53.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.791.801.8558.48%55.88%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Doncaster Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 24.38%4.10fair odd
EV -0.062%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.84%24.27%24.38%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.873.804.1028.57%25.84%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.476%
Kelly -0.634%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.60%24.51%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.783.804.0027.78%26.46%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Luton (Local): 51.10%; Doncaster Rovers (Visit): 24.38%; Draw: 24.52%. For Doncaster Rovers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.103. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.100, with an expected value of -0.062%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -5.46%E -2.95%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 15:35
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.77%EV -5.98%E -3.25%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.65%EV -7.62%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 16:35
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.90%E -0.476%K -0.634%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 15:35
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 15:34
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -6.16%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -8.03%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 17:45
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.71%E -3.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:25
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.71%E -3.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.71%E -3.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.71%E -3.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:20
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.49%E -3.54%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.71%E -3.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:20
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.88%EV -7.00%E -3.84%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -4.94%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%EV -3.13%E -0.792%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.08%EV -7.00%E -3.84%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -7.51%E -4.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.81%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.03%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 17:35
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.02%E -4.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 17:44
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -8.02%E -4.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -8.02%E -4.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.03%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -8.53%E -4.77%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -9.81%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -10.49%E -2.87%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-26 16:34
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -9.55%E -5.40%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -0.062%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -10.57%E -6.04%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.81%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -10.57%E -6.04%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.69%E -4.20%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -11.71%E -3.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-26 18:27
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -12.11%E -7.04%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -3.72%E -0.941%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -12.11%E -7.04%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -3.72%E -0.941%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -12.11%E -7.04%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -3.72%E -0.941%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.77%EV -12.62%E -7.38%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -3.72%E -0.941%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-26 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.77%EV -12.62%E -7.38%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -3.72%E -0.941%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-26 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 49.89%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.87%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.24%16.5%2026-09-26 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-26 18:45