Language:English
Luton v Doncaster Rovers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 52.50%1.90fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -5.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.51%52.80%52.09%58.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.741.771.8262.50%57.43%56.50%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Doncaster Rovers (Visit)
Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV +17.04%
Edge +3.41%
Kelly +4.26%
Growth +0.726%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.60%23.11%23.73%24.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.113.955.0026.67%24.35%25.32%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.374%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.56%24.08%24.18%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.853.884.2027.78%25.99%25.81%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 52.50%; Doncaster Rovers (Visit): 23.41%; Draw: 24.09%. For Doncaster Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -14.95%E -9.23%K -24.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV +17.04%E +3.41%K +4.26%G +0.726% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV +1.20%E +0.285%K +0.374%G +0.004% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 11:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -16.00%E -10.00%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV +17.04%E +3.41%K +4.26%G +0.726% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -1.21%E -0.296%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 11:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -16.00%E -10.00%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV +17.04%E +3.41%K +4.26%G +0.726% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 11:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -16.00%E -10.00%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV +11.19%E +2.36%K +2.98%G +0.334% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 11:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -13.90%E -8.48%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.01%EV +8.85%E +1.90%K +2.42%G +0.214% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 11:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV +2.99%E +0.680%K +0.880%G +0.026% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-28 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -9.18%E -5.31%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV +1.36%E +0.313%K +0.407%G +0.006% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-28 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -10.75%E -6.33%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV +0.653%E +0.152%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-28 14:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -11.28%E -6.67%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -0.517%E -0.122%K -0.159%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -3.62%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-28 14:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -11.80%E -7.03%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -1.69%E -0.402%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-28 14:16 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.03%E -0.983%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 10:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.13%E -4.64%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-28 14:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.13%E -4.64%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-28 14:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -9.70%E -5.64%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.77%EV -10.23%E -5.98%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.77%EV -10.23%E -5.98%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 14:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.73%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.34%EV -7.48%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 04:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.88%EV -4.45%E -2.45%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.71%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%EV -4.83%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.71%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-27 05:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.78%EV -6.55%E -3.68%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.71%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-27 05:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -9.88%E -2.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-28 14:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -7.60%E -4.32%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -9.88%E -2.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-27 05:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 19:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-27 04:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -4.45%E -2.45%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -12.06%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 04:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 20:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 20:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 20:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -5.50%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 20:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 33.23% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 33.23% | 166.3% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 33.23% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 33.23% | 166.3% | 2026-09-30 14:32 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 33.74% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13% | 174.4% | 2026-09-30 13:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33% | 191.3% | 2026-09-28 06:45 |