Language:English
Luton v Burton Albion
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 52.92%1.89fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.14%52.88%52.84%54.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.751.8259.88%57.34%57.31%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Burton Albion (Visit)
Prediction 21.44%4.66fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.382%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.38%21.51%21.52%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.354.404.6025.00%22.96%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.676%
Kelly -0.918%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.40%25.62%25.64%27.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.613.603.8031.25%27.67%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 52.92%; Burton Albion (Visit): 21.44%; Draw: 25.64%. For Burton Albion (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.60, with an expected value of -1.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.95%EV -4.21%E -2.33%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.83%EV -5.88%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -5.80%E -3.26%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -5.80%E -3.26%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.88%EV -5.80%E -3.26%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.88%EV -5.80%E -3.26%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.33%E -3.58%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.33%E -3.58%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -7.17%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.54%EV -6.33%E -3.58%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.81%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 14:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.02%EV -6.33%E -3.58%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -6.33%E -3.58%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -6.33%E -3.58%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -11.54%E -3.35%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.67%EV -6.86%E -3.90%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.67%EV -6.86%E -3.90%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.71%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-20 17:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.71%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-20 17:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.71%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -1.38%E -0.299%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-21 14:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.40%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 20.72%EV -3.31%E -0.733%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 25.88%EV -7.44%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-21 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.17%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.54%E -3.35%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.39%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -7.92%E -4.55%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.10%EV -4.62%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%EV -7.92%E -4.55%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -7.81%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -7.92%E -4.55%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 14:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 17:21 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -8.98%E -5.22%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.98%E -5.22%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -4.59%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.98%E -5.22%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -4.59%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.98%E -5.22%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.74%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.98%E -5.22%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.98%E -5.22%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-20 17:21 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -9.51%E -5.56%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -5.66%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -3.52%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-21 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-21 14:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -7.17%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%EV -6.74%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%EV -6.74%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-20 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.10%EV -11.62%E -6.96%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -9.95%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.19%EV -17.95%E -5.61%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-02-21 14:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.08% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10% | 0.9% | 2026-02-21 14:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.08% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10% | 0.9% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.55% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.23% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22% | 3.0% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |