Language:English
Luton v Barnsley
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 66.80%1.50fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -8.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.59%66.77%66.87%68.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4475.19%71.89%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Barnsley (Visit)
Prediction 13.73%7.28fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.362%
Kelly +0.418%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 7.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%13.76%13.69%16.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.656.507.4817.24%15.03%15.38%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.47%5.14fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.372%
Kelly -0.465%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.55%19.47%19.44%20.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.724.705.0423.81%21.19%21.28%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 66.80%; Barnsley (Visit): 13.73%; Draw: 19.47%. For Barnsley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.73%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 7.48I 13.37%NM 12.59%EV +2.71%E +0.362%K +0.418%G +0.011% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.68%EV -1.88%E -0.372%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 13:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -9.82%E -7.27%K -28.06%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.77%EV -1.14%E -0.158%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.66%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.47%EV -7.15%E -5.14%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -4.60%E -0.939%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 16:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 16:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -2.66%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -2.66%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 20:13 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 16:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 13:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.47%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.762%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 20:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.47%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.762%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 20:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.07%EV -7.15%E -5.14%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV -6.63%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -5.58%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.79I 14.73%NM 13.79%EV -6.77%E -0.997%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.31%EV -5.58%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -7.32%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -7.32%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -7.32%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -7.32%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.71%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.85%EV -9.38%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.44%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.71%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.85%EV -9.38%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.44%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 11:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -3.81%E -2.64%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.66%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.66%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.92%EV -5.81%E -4.12%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 20:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 11:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 15:38 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 15:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.12%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.12%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 20:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-23 09:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 09:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -11.16%E -8.39%K -33.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.73%EV -11.16%E -8.39%K -33.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -18.23%E -4.34%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.82%E -5.66%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -12.12%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.50%EV -4.48%E -3.13%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -14.18%E -2.27%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.51%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.81%E -2.64%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.66%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.48%E -4.63%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-24 02:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -3.81%E -2.64%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -20.36%E -3.51%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -3.81%E -2.64%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -20.36%E -3.51%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.74% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.84% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.42% | 2.4% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.50% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35% | 2.8% | 2026-04-24 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.50% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35% | 2.8% | 2026-04-24 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.50% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35% | 2.8% | 2026-04-24 02:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.26% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 00:34 |