The School of Odds
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Barnsley v Milton Keynes Dons

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barnsley (Local)

Prediction 38.32%2.61fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.31%38.35%38.36%40.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.402.402.5043.86%41.72%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milton Keynes Dons (Visit)

Prediction 36.34%2.75fair odd
EV -0.076%
Edge -0.028%
Kelly -0.043%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.13%36.15%36.38%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.492.602.592.7540.16%38.42%38.61%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.35%3.95fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -0.970%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%25.50%25.26%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.553.8029.41%27.81%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barnsley (Local): 38.32%; Milton Keynes Dons (Visit): 36.34%; Draw: 25.35%. For Milton Keynes Dons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.752. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.750, with an expected value of -0.076%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.20%E -1.68%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -4.95%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 13:15
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.01%EV -4.59%E -1.84%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.82%EV -6.62%E -2.57%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.17%EV -4.70%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-26 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -3.69%E -0.970%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.69%E -0.970%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-30 13:30
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -3.69%E -0.970%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-28 07:52
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -7.49%E -2.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 19:10
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:20
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:25
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.12%E -2.50%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-28 04:20
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.27%EV -6.89%E -2.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.04%EV -6.25%E -2.42%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.69%EV -8.25%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-27 07:22
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.95%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 13:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-28 08:39
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.22%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 16:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.22%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.22%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-01 13:15
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -3.69%E -0.970%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-28 14:03
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:25
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.04%E -3.35%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-30 14:28
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 14:10
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -0.076%E -0.028%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -10.02%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 10:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.21%EV -8.80%E -3.70%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.52%EV -9.52%E -3.82%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%EV -9.95%E -4.23%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.92%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -7.49%E -2.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-01 13:14
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -11.10%E -4.78%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-26 14:10
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -11.10%E -4.78%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-26 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -11.10%E -4.78%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-26 14:10
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -11.87%E -5.16%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -4.44%E -1.69%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-26 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -11.87%E -5.16%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -4.44%E -1.69%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-26 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.38%EV -12.63%E -5.54%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.22%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-28 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 37.80%2.14I 46.73%NM 35.68%2.88I 34.72%NM 26.51%31.0%2026-10-01 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 25.91%2.32I 43.10%NM 24.12%1.12I 89.29%NM 49.97%78.7%2026-10-01 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 25.91%2.32I 43.10%NM 24.12%1.12I 89.29%NM 49.97%78.7%2026-10-01 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 25.68%2.32I 43.10%NM 23.91%1.10I 90.91%NM 50.42%80.3%2026-10-01 13:20
Smarkets◎1.10I 90.91%NM 43.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 43.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 12.94%108.8%2026-10-01 13:15