The School of Odds

Stoke City v Oldham Athletic

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Stoke City (Local)

Prediction 66.41%1.51fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -9.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.14%66.17%66.46%67.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.311.391.401.4476%72%71%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Oldham Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 14.18%7.05fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.390%
Kelly +0.453%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.88%14.36%14.14%16.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.306.126.227.2519%16%16%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.41%5.15fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.593%
Kelly -0.741%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.35%19.47%19.40%20.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.694.705.0024%21%21%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.67%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.99%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV +2.83%E +0.390%K +0.453%G +0.013%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -6.85%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 14:30
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -0.716%E -0.102%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.91%E -1.00%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-25 15:20
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -9.02%E -6.58%K -24.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -0.716%E -0.102%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -6.85%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-21 14:30
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -9.68%E -7.12%K -26.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -0.716%E -0.102%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -7.82%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-21 14:29
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -9.68%E -7.12%K -26.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -0.716%E -0.102%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -7.82%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-21 14:30
betano_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.68%E -7.12%K -26.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -0.716%E -0.102%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.73%E -2.33%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 13:34
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.68%E -7.12%K -26.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -0.716%E -0.102%K -0.119%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.73%E -2.33%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 13:33
Marathon Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.56%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.99%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.41%EV -1.42%E -0.205%K -0.239%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -4.91%E -1.00%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:35
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.37%EV -7.69%E -5.53%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.93I 14.43%NM 13.51%EV -1.71%E -0.247%K -0.288%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV -4.91%E -1.00%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-22 01:30
Pinnacle1.39I 71.94%NM 66.91%EV -7.69%E -5.53%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.74I 14.84%NM 13.80%EV -4.40%E -0.653%K -0.767%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.29%EV -6.46%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.96%EV -10.35%E -7.66%K -29.56%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.69%EV -4.97%E -0.742%K -0.872%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -2.97%E -0.593%K -0.741%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 21:54
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.97%E -0.593%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 19:19
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.40%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -2.97%E -0.593%K -0.741%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 02:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.85%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 21:55
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.73%E -2.33%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 19:20
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -12.67%E -2.82%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 14:30
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -14.61%E -3.32%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-21 14:30
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -14.61%E -3.32%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -14.61%E -3.32%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-21 14:30
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -9.68%E -7.12%K -26.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -7.81%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -15.97%E -3.69%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-21 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -11.35%E -1.82%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -7.82%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-21 21:55
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -11.35%E -1.82%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -7.82%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-21 21:55
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 65.95%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.99%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.68%EV -12.06%E -1.95%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-23 10:39
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 65.90%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -14.90%E -2.48%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.85%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-23 14:32
NetBet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.03%EV -11.68%E -8.78%K -35.38%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.88%EV -16.32%E -2.77%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -10.73%E -2.33%K -2.98%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-25 09:05
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 65.34%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.68%EV -18.45%E -3.21%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -7.82%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-23 14:35
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 64.54%EV -7.69%E -5.53%K -19.72%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.74%EV -19.15%E -3.36%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.72%EV -11.70%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-21 14:30
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 64.54%EV -7.69%E -5.53%K -19.72%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.74%EV -19.15%E -3.36%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.72%EV -11.70%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Winamax (DE)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.06%EV -11.01%E -8.22%K -32.39%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.57%EV -20.57%E -3.67%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -12.67%E -2.82%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-22 15:39
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -7.03%E -5.02%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -23.41%E -4.34%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -8.79%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-16 14:05
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 64.14%EV -13.00%E -9.93%K -41.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.85%EV -24.83%E -4.68%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.01%EV -18.49%E -4.40%K -5.78%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-22 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-23 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-23 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-23 13:30