Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Reading v Brentford

2026-09-15 19:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Reading (Local)

Predicción 11.73%8.52momio equitativo
EV +5.59%
Ventaja +0.621%
Kelly +0.699%
Crecimiento +0.039%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.69%11.68%11.75%13.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.407.477.259.0015.63%13.39%13.79%11.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Brentford (Visitante)

Predicción 70.80%1.41momio equitativo
EV -3.72%
Ventaja -2.73%
Kelly -10.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.10%70.84%70.78%72.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.321.301.3680.00%75.88%76.92%73.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.47%5.72momio equitativo
EV -0.419%
Ventaja -0.074%
Kelly -0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.22%17.49%17.47%19.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.805.215.255.7020.83%19.21%19.05%17.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Reading (Local): 11.73%; Brentford (Visitante): 70.80%; Empate: 17.47%. Para Reading (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 8.52. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 9.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.59%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.69%EV +5.59%E +0.621%K +0.699%G +0.039%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.81%EV -5.13%E -3.83%K -15.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 18:54
1xBet🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 10.97%EV +3.25%E +0.369%K +0.416%G +0.014%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.49%EV -4.42%E -3.28%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-03 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%EV -0.274%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.67%EV -6.55%E -4.96%K -20.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 14:45
SportsBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -0.274%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.72%EV -9.38%E -7.33%K -33.50%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.33%EV -0.419%E -0.074%K -0.089%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 16:55
Sky Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -0.274%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -8.67%E -6.72%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 13:59
Paddy Power🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -0.274%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -8.67%E -6.72%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 14:05
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -4.42%E -3.28%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 14:14
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.86%EV -5.13%E -3.83%K -15.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -3.91%E -0.711%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:00
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.23%EV -9.38%E -7.33%K -33.50%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.22%EV -0.419%E -0.074%K -0.089%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.92%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:50
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.84%E -4.39%K -17.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -16.14%E -3.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:00
betano_uk🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -8.67%E -6.72%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 14:00
Bet Victor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -6.14%E -0.768%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -8.67%E -6.72%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -8.49%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -9.15%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 16:45
Pinnacle🎯7.74I 12.92%NM 12.18%EV -9.19%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.87%EV -5.84%E -4.39%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 16.95%EV -2.86%E -0.515%K -0.628%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 14:00
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -12.01%E -1.60%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.67%E -6.72%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.65%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 14:00
888sport🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -12.01%E -1.60%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -16.14%E -3.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -12.01%E -1.60%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -16.14%E -3.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -12.01%E -1.60%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -16.14%E -3.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 15:45
betPARX🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:40
Grosvenor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:44
Casumo🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:44
TABtouch🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:50
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.72%E -2.73%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -8.28%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 17:15
LeoVegas🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.81%EV -8.67%E -6.72%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -9.15%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-03 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -12.65%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -12.65%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 17:50
Neds🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -17.87%E -2.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -12.65%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.05%EV -20.81%E -3.08%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 69.34%EV -10.09%E -7.94%K -37.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -12.65%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-03 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.24%EV -23.74%E -3.65%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 68.84%EV -11.50%E -9.20%K -46.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.93%EV -16.14%E -3.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-03 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.83%EV -24.91%E -3.89%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.07%EV -14.40%E -2.94%K -3.69%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.83%EV -24.91%E -3.89%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.07%EV -14.40%E -2.94%K -3.69%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.83%EV -24.91%E -3.89%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -7.96%E -6.13%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.07%EV -14.40%E -2.94%K -3.69%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 16:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 22.62%1.08I 92.59%NM 54.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 23.34%71.4%2026-09-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 22.62%1.08I 92.59%NM 54.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 23.34%71.4%2026-09-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 22.16%1.04I 96.15%NM 54.97%2.50I 40.00%NM 22.87%74.9%2026-09-03 17:55