The School of Odds

Plymouth Argyle v Exeter City

2026-08-10 19:00 — EFL Cup

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Plymouth Argyle (Local)

Prediction 58.76%1.70fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -9.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.43%58.76%58.06%60.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.561.571.60MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
57.43%1.741Min
60.81%1.644Max
58.76%1.702Mean
58.06%1.723Median
58.76%1.702IQM
59.04%1.694Margin-weighted

Exeter City (Visit)

Prediction 19.11%5.23fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.298%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.55%19.11%19.74%20.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.814.865.30MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
17.55%5.697Min
20.04%4.991Max
19.11%5.233Mean
19.74%5.066Median
19.11%5.233IQM
18.89%5.293Margin-weighted

Draw

Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.25%22.13%22.21%22.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.134.204.30MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
21.25%4.706Min
22.54%4.437Max
22.13%4.519Mean
22.21%4.503Median
22.13%4.519IQM
22.06%4.532Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerPlymouth Argyle (Local)Exeter City (Visit) ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.53I 65.36% NM 60.81%EV -10.09% E -6.60% K -19.04% G +0.000%5.30I 18.87% NM 17.55%EV +1.28% E +0.241% K +0.298% G +0.004%4.30I 23.26% NM 21.64%EV -4.85% E -1.13% K -1.47% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 11:44
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29% NM 59.63%EV -7.15% E -4.53% K -12.33% G +0.000%5.25I 19.05% NM 17.94%EV +0.324% E +0.062% K +0.076% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.43%EV -7.06% E -1.68% K -2.21% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-09 11:45
SportsBet1.57I 63.69% NM 59.25%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.60%EV -4.45% E -0.891% K -1.11% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.15%EV -7.06% E -1.68% K -2.21% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 11:45
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69% NM 59.25%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.60%EV -4.45% E -0.891% K -1.11% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.15%EV -7.06% E -1.68% K -2.21% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 11:44
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69% NM 59.25%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.60%EV -4.45% E -0.891% K -1.11% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.15%EV -7.06% E -1.68% K -2.21% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 11:50
1xBet1.60I 62.50% NM 58.61%EV -5.98% E -3.74% K -9.96% G +0.000%4.92I 20.33% NM 19.06%EV -5.98% E -1.22% K -1.53% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.33%EV -7.06% E -1.68% K -2.21% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 11:45
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36% NM 59.72%EV -10.09% E -6.60% K -19.04% G +0.000%4.80I 20.83% NM 19.03%EV -8.27% E -1.72% K -2.18% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 21.25%EV -4.85% E -1.13% K -1.47% G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-09 11:44
888sport1.57I 63.69% NM 57.43%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.04%EV -14.01% E -3.11% K -4.00% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.54%EV -11.49% E -2.87% K -3.83% G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-09 11:44
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69% NM 57.43%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.04%EV -14.01% E -3.11% K -4.00% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.54%EV -11.49% E -2.87% K -3.83% G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-09 11:44
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69% NM 57.43%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.04%EV -14.01% E -3.11% K -4.00% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.54%EV -11.49% E -2.87% K -3.83% G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-09 11:45
William Hill1.57I 63.69% NM 57.43%EV -7.74% E -4.93% K -13.58% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.04%EV -14.01% E -3.11% K -4.00% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.54%EV -11.49% E -2.87% K -3.83% G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-09 11:50
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36% NM 58.06%EV -10.09% E -6.60% K -19.04% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 19.74%EV -14.01% E -3.11% K -4.00% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.21%EV -11.49% E -2.87% K -3.83% G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-09 11:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerPlymouth Argyle (Local)Exeter City (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15% NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15% NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04% NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-09 11:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15% NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15% NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04% NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-09 11:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15% NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15% NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04% NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-09 11:45