The School of Odds

Leicester City v Northampton Town

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Leicester City (Local)

Prediction 69.72%1.43fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -9.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.39%69.59%69.76%72.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.3880%75%75%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Northampton Town (Visit)

Prediction 11.93%8.38fair odd
EV +4.39%
Edge +0.502%
Kelly +0.567%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 8.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.57%12.08%11.86%14.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.007.337.508.7517%14%13%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 18.35%5.45fair odd
EV +0.932%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.207%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.71%18.33%18.39%20.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.404.814.855.5023%21%21%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.31%EV -7.97%E -6.04%K -24.91%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.76%EV +4.39%E +0.502%K +0.567%G +0.025%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -3.66%E -0.696%K -0.860%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 05:59
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -10.76%E -8.41%K -38.43%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.57%EV +4.39%E +0.502%K +0.567%G +0.025%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -0.903%E -0.167%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 05:59
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -10.06%E -7.80%K -34.70%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV +1.41%E +0.166%K +0.188%G +0.003%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 05:59
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -10.06%E -7.80%K -34.70%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV +1.41%E +0.166%K +0.188%G +0.003%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 06:00
Marathon Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -7.97%E -6.04%K -24.91%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.10%EV +0.219%E +0.026%K +0.030%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -6.41%E -1.26%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 19:19
1xBet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.37%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.28%EV -0.974%E -0.117%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -6.41%E -1.26%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 19:20
Pinnacle1.32I 75.76%NM 70.48%EV -7.97%E -6.04%K -24.91%G +0.000%8.02I 12.47%NM 11.60%EV -4.31%E -0.538%K -0.615%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 17.92%EV -4.76%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 21:55
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.18%E -3.81%K -14.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 02:39
William Hill1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.88%E -4.36%K -16.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -11.91%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 14:30
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -11.91%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 14:30
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -11.91%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -11.91%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 14:30
FanDuel1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.76%E -8.41%K -38.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV +0.932%E +0.169%K +0.207%G +0.002%8.8%2026-07-23 06:00
Tipico (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.76%E -8.41%K -38.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV +0.932%E +0.169%K +0.207%G +0.002%8.8%2026-07-24 22:09
betano_uk1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.37%E -7.21%K -31.22%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-21 19:18
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.37%E -7.21%K -31.22%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -4.55%E -0.569%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-21 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -5.88%E -4.36%K -16.80%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -7.54%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 21:55
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -5.88%E -4.36%K -16.80%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -7.54%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 21:55
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -10.52%E -1.40%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -4.57%E -0.879%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 09:44
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.52%E -1.40%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-23 09:44
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.28%E -5.47%K -22.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.52%E -1.40%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 14:26
NetBet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.62%EV -12.16%E -9.65%K -46.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.10%EV -13.50%E -1.86%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.28%EV -11.91%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-25 09:05
LowVig.ag1.30I 76.92%NM 69.04%EV -9.37%E -7.21%K -31.22%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.64%EV -15.29%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.32%EV -10.08%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-23 11:30
BetOnline.ag1.30I 76.92%NM 69.04%EV -9.37%E -7.21%K -31.22%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.64%EV -15.29%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.32%EV -10.08%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-23 11:30
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -9.37%E -7.21%K -31.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -16.48%E -2.35%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -8.24%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 19:20
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -9.37%E -7.21%K -31.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -16.48%E -2.35%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.83%E -2.70%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-21 14:30
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -3.79%E -2.75%K -9.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -23.64%E -3.69%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -19.25%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 14:05
Winamax (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 67.96%EV -10.76%E -8.41%K -38.43%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.92%EV -25.43%E -4.07%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.12%EV -11.91%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-23 09:44
Winamax (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 67.29%EV -12.85%E -10.28%K -51.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.02%EV -28.42%E -4.74%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.69%EV -17.42%E -3.87%K -4.98%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-23 09:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.41%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.32%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.26%5.3%2026-07-25 10:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.41%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.32%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.26%5.3%2026-07-25 10:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.41%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.32%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.26%5.3%2026-07-25 10:45