Leicester City v Northampton Town

2026-08-08 16:00 — EFL Cup

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Leicester City (Local)

Odds

1.3375.19%Min

1.3772.82%Mean

1.3872.46%Median

1.4071.43%Max

Consensus probabilities

65.39%1.529Min

67.54%1.481Max

66.43%1.505Mean

66.41%1.506Median

66.41%1.506IQM

66.50%1.504Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.40 under the IQM model: 66.41%

EV -7.03%Edge -5.02%Kelly -17.56%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Northampton Town (Visit)

Odds

6.4015.63%Min

6.6015.14%Mean

6.4015.63%Median

7.5013.33%Max

Consensus probabilities

12.60%7.936Min

14.10%7.092Max

13.70%7.300Mean

13.74%7.277Median

13.74%7.277IQM

13.67%7.318Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 7.50 under the IQM model: 13.74%

EV +3.06%Edge +0.408%Kelly +0.471%Growth +0.014%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

4.4022.73%Min

4.5222.12%Mean

4.4022.73%Median

4.8020.83%Max

Consensus probabilities

19.27%5.189Min

20.51%4.876Max

19.87%5.033Mean

19.85%5.038Median

19.85%5.038IQM

19.83%5.043Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.80 under the IQM model: 19.85%

EV -4.73%Edge -0.985%Kelly -1.24%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Leicester City (Local)	Northampton Town (Visit) ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	1.40I 71.43% NM 68.46%EV -7.03% E -5.02% K -17.56% G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90% NM 12.37%EV +6.49% E +0.838% K +0.962% G +0.062%	5.00I 20.00% NM 19.17%EV -0.758% E -0.152% K -0.189% G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.50%EV -7.03% E -5.02% K -17.56% G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33% NM 12.60%EV +3.06% E +0.408% K +0.471% G +0.014%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.90%EV -5.72% E -1.20% K -1.53% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-30 02:59
1xBet	1.39I 71.94% NM 67.41%EV -7.69% E -5.53% K -19.72% G +0.000%	7.28I 13.74% NM 12.87%EV +0.036% E +0.005% K +0.006% G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.72%EV -5.72% E -1.20% K -1.53% G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-26 18:39
FanDuel	1.37I 72.99% NM 67.52%EV -9.02% E -6.58% K -24.37% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.21%EV -3.81% E -0.544% K -0.635% G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83% NM 19.27%EV -4.73% E -0.985% K -1.24% G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-26 14:39
SportsBet	1.36I 73.53% NM 67.54%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.12%EV -3.81% E -0.544% K -0.635% G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.34%EV -5.72% E -1.20% K -1.53% G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power	1.36I 73.53% NM 67.54%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.12%EV -3.81% E -0.544% K -0.635% G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.34%EV -5.72% E -1.20% K -1.53% G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet	1.36I 73.53% NM 67.54%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.12%EV -3.81% E -0.544% K -0.635% G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.34%EV -5.72% E -1.20% K -1.53% G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-06-26 14:29
LeoVegas	1.38I 72.46% NM 66.68%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15% NM 13.94%EV -9.31% E -1.41% K -1.66% G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05% NM 19.37%EV -5.72% E -1.20% K -1.53% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-02 10:20
William Hill	1.36I 73.53% NM 66.16%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 13.84%EV -10.68% E -1.64% K -1.94% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.00%EV -10.68% E -2.37% K -3.05% G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-06-30 14:00
888sport	1.36I 73.53% NM 66.16%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 13.84%EV -10.68% E -1.64% K -1.94% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.00%EV -10.68% E -2.37% K -3.05% G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)	1.36I 73.53% NM 66.16%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 13.84%EV -10.68% E -1.64% K -1.94% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.00%EV -10.68% E -2.37% K -3.05% G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)	1.36I 73.53% NM 66.16%EV -9.68% E -7.12% K -26.89% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 13.84%EV -10.68% E -1.64% K -1.94% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 20.00%EV -10.68% E -2.37% K -3.05% G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-06-30 14:19
BoyleSports	1.33I 75.19% NM 66.66%EV -11.67% E -8.78% K -35.38% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 13.64%EV -10.68% E -1.64% K -1.94% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 19.70%EV -10.68% E -2.37% K -3.05% G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-06-27 15:10
BetRivers	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet	1.38I 72.46% NM 65.39%EV -8.35% E -6.05% K -21.98% G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63% NM 14.10%EV -12.06% E -1.88% K -2.23% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 20.51%EV -12.67% E -2.88% K -3.73% G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-06-30 08:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Leicester City (Local)	Northampton Town (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39