Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Leicester City v Northampton Town

Início: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Leicester City 1–0 Northampton Town

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Leicester City (Local)

Previsão 69.69%1.43odd justa
EV -3.13%
Vantagem -2.25%
Kelly -8.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.39

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.76%69.77%69.75%74.23%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.231.321.331.3981.30%75.83%75.19%71.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Northampton Town (Visitante)

Previsão 11.66%8.58odd justa
EV +10.76%
Vantagem +1.13%
Kelly +1.27%
Crescimento +0.136%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
9.70%11.78%11.64%15.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.907.808.009.5016.95%12.82%12.50%10.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.65%5.36odd justa
EV +11.88%
Vantagem +1.98%
Kelly +2.38%
Crescimento +0.282%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.46%18.45%18.62%20.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.405.115.006.0022.73%19.55%20.00%16.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Leicester City (Local): 69.69%; Northampton Town (Visitante): 11.66%; Empate: 18.65%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.36. 17 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +11.88%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -12.88%E -10.31%K -51.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV +4.93%E +0.548%K +0.617%G +0.030%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV +11.88%E +1.98%K +2.38%G +0.282%7.8%2026-08-08 13:44
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV +7.22%E +1.26%K +1.52%G +0.110%8.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV +7.22%E +1.26%K +1.52%G +0.110%8.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV +7.22%E +1.26%K +1.52%G +0.110%8.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV +7.22%E +1.26%K +1.52%G +0.110%8.0%2026-08-08 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV +7.22%E +1.26%K +1.52%G +0.110%8.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -12.88%E -10.31%K -51.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +4.93%E +0.548%K +0.617%G +0.030%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV +6.29%E +1.10%K +1.34%G +0.084%8.7%2026-08-08 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.02%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV +4.42%E +0.790%K +0.961%G +0.043%8.5%2026-08-08 13:54
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.02%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV +4.42%E +0.790%K +0.961%G +0.043%8.5%2026-08-08 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.02%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV +4.42%E +0.790%K +0.961%G +0.043%8.5%2026-08-08 13:55
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.02%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV +4.42%E +0.790%K +0.961%G +0.043%8.5%2026-08-08 13:54
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.02%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV +4.42%E +0.790%K +0.961%G +0.043%8.5%2026-08-08 13:54
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -9.40%E -7.23%K -31.33%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV +10.76%E +1.13%K +1.27%G +0.136%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV +2.56%E +0.465%K +0.568%G +0.015%5.6%2026-08-08 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -9.40%E -7.23%K -31.33%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.21%EV +7.85%E +0.848%K +0.951%G +0.075%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.56%E +0.465%K +0.568%G +0.015%5.9%2026-08-08 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.69%EV -13.58%E -10.95%K -56.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.46%EV +0.693%E +0.128%K +0.157%G +0.001%12.5%2026-08-08 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.69%EV -13.58%E -10.95%K -56.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.46%EV +0.693%E +0.128%K +0.157%G +0.001%12.5%2026-08-08 13:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.85%EV -14.28%E -11.61%K -62.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.78%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.37%EV +0.693%E +0.128%K +0.157%G +0.001%13.2%2026-08-08 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -7.31%E -5.49%K -22.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -0.898%E -0.106%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.10%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:54
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -7.31%E -5.49%K -22.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -0.898%E -0.106%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.10%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -5.91%E -4.38%K -16.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -2.10%E -0.401%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.99%EV -8.00%E -6.06%K -25.01%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.49%EV -21.30%E -3.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -3.04%E -0.584%K -0.723%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.08%EV -7.31%E -5.49%K -22.14%G +0.000%8.83I 11.33%NM 10.71%EV +2.95%E +0.334%K +0.377%G +0.011%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.21%EV -3.22%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:45
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:54
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:54
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -7.31%E -5.49%K -22.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -18.39%E -2.63%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.33%EV -8.70%E -6.64%K -28.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.77%EV -24.22%E -3.73%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -6.77%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 13:55
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -5.91%E -4.38%K -16.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.60%EV -6.61%E -4.93%K -19.44%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.37%EV -4.40%E -0.536%K -0.610%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 13:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.12%EV -5.91%E -4.38%K -16.89%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.38%EV -26.55%E -4.21%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -8.63%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:54
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.40%E -7.23%K -31.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -18.39%E -2.63%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -10.50%E -2.19%K -2.76%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 13:55
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.25%EV -3.13%E -2.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.06I 14.16%NM 13.24%EV -17.69%E -2.51%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.51%EV -10.68%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 13:53
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.90%EV -9.40%E -7.23%K -31.33%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +10.76%E +1.13%K +1.27%G +0.136%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -11.43%E -2.41%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:55
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -18.39%E -2.63%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -11.43%E -2.41%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.76%EV -4.52%E -3.30%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.27%EV -31.21%E -5.29%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV -11.43%E -2.41%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -9.40%E -7.23%K -31.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -12.56%E -1.67%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -11.43%E -2.41%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 13:54
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.61%E -4.93%K -19.44%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -15.47%E -2.13%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -12.36%E -2.63%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 13:54
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -14.22%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:54
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -14.22%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -14.22%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -6.73%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -14.22%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.57%EV -10.09%E -7.83%K -34.81%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.20%EV -15.47%E -2.13%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.23%EV -14.22%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 13:54
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -7.31%E -5.49%K -22.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -18.39%E -2.63%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -16.09%E -3.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -4.52%E -3.30%K -12.21%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -7.89%E -0.999%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -17.02%E -3.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:54
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -4.52%E -3.30%K -12.21%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -7.89%E -0.999%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -17.02%E -3.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:54
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.98%EV -5.91%E -4.38%K -16.89%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.47%EV -15.47%E -2.13%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -17.95%E -4.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 13:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-08 13:55
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-08 13:55