Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ipswich Town v Arsenal

Início: 2026-09-15 19:00 UTC

Final: Ipswich Town 2–4 Arsenal

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ipswich Town (Local)

Previsão 12.86%7.78odd justa
EV +22.18%
Vantagem +2.33%
Kelly +2.61%
Crescimento +0.579%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.12%12.97%12.73%15.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.007.597.509.5016.67%13.17%13.33%10.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arsenal (Visitante)

Previsão 68.56%1.46odd justa
EV -1.27%
Vantagem -0.882%
Kelly -2.89%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.44

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.45%68.41%68.61%72.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.201.351.361.4483.33%74.20%73.53%69.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.58%5.38odd justa
EV -1.54%
Vantagem -0.291%
Kelly -0.359%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.67%18.62%18.66%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.504.955.005.3022.22%20.19%20.00%18.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ipswich Town (Local): 12.86%; Arsenal (Visitante): 68.56%; Empate: 18.58%. Para Ipswich Town (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.78. 22 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 9.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +22.18%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +22.18%E +2.33%K +2.61%G +0.579%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.74%EV -8.13%E -6.06%K -23.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV -1.54%E -0.291%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-15 18:46
ATG (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +22.18%E +2.33%K +2.61%G +0.579%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.74%EV -8.13%E -6.06%K -23.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV -1.54%E -0.291%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-15 18:45
betPARX🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +15.75%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.310%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -9.50%E -7.20%K -29.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +15.75%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.310%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -9.50%E -7.20%K -29.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:46
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +15.75%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.310%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -9.50%E -7.20%K -29.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:45
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +15.75%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.310%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -9.50%E -7.20%K -29.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:46
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +15.75%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.310%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -9.50%E -7.20%K -29.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:46
Hard Rock Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +15.75%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.310%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.05%EV -10.18%E -7.77%K -32.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:45
Coolbet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.29%EV +9.32%E +1.10%K +1.24%G +0.116%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.52%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.19%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV +9.32%E +1.10%K +1.24%G +0.116%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.51%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -8.97%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 18:46
TABtouch🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV +9.32%E +1.10%K +1.24%G +0.116%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.51%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -8.97%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 18:46
Grosvenor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.19%EV +9.32%E +1.10%K +1.24%G +0.116%1.20I 83.33%NM 72.15%EV -17.73%E -14.77%K -88.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.67%EV -8.97%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-15 18:46
Marathon Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.40I 71.43%NM 69.24%EV -4.01%E -2.87%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64%EV -3.40%E -0.654%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-15 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -8.81%E -6.63%K -26.70%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -3.40%E -0.654%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:40
SportsBet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -8.13%E -6.06%K -23.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 18:55
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -8.81%E -6.63%K -26.70%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.26%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 18:55
BetRivers🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV -10.83%E -2.26%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -11.76%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 18:44
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -11.76%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 18:46
PMU (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV +2.89%E +0.361%K +0.413%G +0.012%1.27I 78.74%NM 69.98%EV -12.93%E -10.18%K -47.87%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.91%EV -12.69%E -2.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-15 18:46
1xBet🎯7.94I 12.59%NM 11.94%EV +2.12%E +0.267%K +0.305%G +0.006%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.19%EV -4.70%E -3.38%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.87%EV -11.39%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-15 18:50
Pinnacle🎯7.78I 12.85%NM 12.28%EV +0.058%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.24%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.48%EV -3.96%E -0.765%K -0.949%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-15 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯7.55I 13.25%NM 12.58%EV -2.90%E -0.384%K -0.443%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -5.26%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯7.55I 13.25%NM 12.58%EV -2.90%E -0.384%K -0.443%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -5.26%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 18:55
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -3.54%E -0.472%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 18:53
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -3.54%E -0.472%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 18:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -3.54%E -0.472%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -3.54%E -0.472%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -11.76%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-15 18:46
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -3.54%E -0.472%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -11.76%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-15 18:36
Fliff🎯7.35I 13.61%NM 12.46%EV -5.47%E -0.744%K -0.862%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.85%EV -8.81%E -6.63%K -26.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -8.97%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 18:55
NordicBet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV -6.11%E -0.838%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.41%EV -4.01%E -2.87%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -10.83%E -2.26%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 18:48
Betsson🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV -6.11%E -0.838%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.41%EV -4.01%E -2.87%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -10.83%E -2.26%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -6.76%E -0.932%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 18:50
PlayUp🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.73%EV -6.76%E -0.932%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -11.76%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Bovada🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.97%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.41%EV -3.33%E -2.36%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 18:30
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.97%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 18:46
NetBet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -9.97%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.05%EV -9.50%E -7.20%K -29.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -12.69%E -2.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-15 18:45
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -9.97%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.87%E -8.36%K -36.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -14.55%E -3.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 18:55
LeoVegas🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.80%EV -13.19%E -1.95%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.47%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.54%EV -13.19%E -1.95%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.19%EV -8.13%E -6.06%K -23.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-15 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.54%EV -13.19%E -1.95%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.19%EV -8.13%E -6.06%K -23.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-15 18:55
theScore Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -16.40%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -5.38%E -3.90%K -14.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -16.40%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.07%E -4.43%K -16.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:55
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -16.40%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -14.55%E -3.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 18:50
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -16.40%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.40%E -3.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -16.40%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.40%E -3.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -16.40%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.40%E -3.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:50
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -19.62%E -3.14%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -1.96%E -1.37%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 18:25
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -22.83%E -3.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.27%E -0.882%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -2.47%E -0.471%K -0.581%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -22.83%E -3.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -1.27%E -0.882%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -7.11%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 18:36
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -22.83%E -3.81%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -6.76%E -4.97%K -18.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -11.76%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-15 18:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-15 18:55
Matchbook◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.85%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-09-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.76%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.23%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.00%1.0%2026-09-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.76%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.23%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.00%1.0%2026-09-15 18:55