Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra v Accrington Stanley

Início: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Crewe Alexandra 2–1 Accrington Stanley

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra (Local)

Previsão 51.15%1.96odd justa
EV -4.36%
Vantagem -2.33%
Kelly -5.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.87

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.14%51.07%51.26%52.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.811.821.8758.82%55.21%54.95%53.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Accrington Stanley (Visitante)

Previsão 23.20%4.31odd justa
EV -0.933%
Vantagem -0.218%
Kelly -0.285%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.27

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.18%23.19%23.09%25.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.553.933.904.2728.17%25.47%25.64%23.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.65%3.90odd justa
EV -3.29%
Vantagem -0.873%
Kelly -1.19%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.77

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.77%25.74%25.65%26.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.403.593.603.7729.41%27.86%27.78%26.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Crewe Alexandra (Local): 51.15%; Accrington Stanley (Visitante): 23.20%; Empate: 25.65%. Para Accrington Stanley (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.31. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 4.27, com valor esperado de -0.933%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.69%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.25%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -4.88%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 13:09
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -2.56%E -0.609%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:45
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.80%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 06:25
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.88%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 04:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 04:15
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 04:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 07:45
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.36%E -2.12%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 04:05
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.36%E -2.12%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 04:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -16.48%E -4.58%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -16.48%E -4.58%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.64%EV -5.89%E -3.20%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.25%EV -0.933%E -0.218%K -0.285%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.10%EV -6.63%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 13:30
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.77%EV -5.89%E -3.20%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.45%EV -11.37%E -2.98%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.78%EV -3.29%E -0.873%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:53
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-03 14:09
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 13:05
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 04:15
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 04:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 04:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 04:15
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -13.00%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 13:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.88%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 06:40
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:24
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -9.52%E -2.44%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.37%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:25
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -6.91%E -3.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -10.68%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.52%EV -7.42%E -4.10%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -2.56%E -0.609%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 13:20
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.88%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 11:49
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-30 13:05
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -13.00%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:20
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -9.47%E -5.35%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.56%E -0.609%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-26 14:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -9.47%E -5.35%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -4.88%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:29
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -9.47%E -5.35%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 09:30
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -10.49%E -6.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.20%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-29 14:05
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -10.49%E -6.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.84%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-05 14:03
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.83%EV -11.00%E -6.32%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.90%EV -14.16%E -3.83%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.83%EV -11.00%E -6.32%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.90%EV -14.16%E -3.83%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 13:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.83%EV -11.00%E -6.32%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.90%EV -14.16%E -3.83%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 13:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.26%EV -11.52%E -6.66%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.03%EV -10.68%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -11.50%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.13%EV -12.03%E -6.99%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.09%EV -15.32%E -4.20%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.77%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-28 01:03
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.72%EV -13.05%E -7.68%K -18.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.29%EV -17.64%E -4.97%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.99%EV -11.50%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-28 01:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Matchbook1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.01%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02%1.2%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.01%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02%1.2%2026-08-08 13:55