Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lincoln City v Swansea City

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lincoln City (Local)

Prediction 34.53%2.90fair odd
EV +0.839%
Edge +0.287%
Kelly +0.437%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.41%34.39%34.54%35.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.692.702.9240.82%37.13%37.04%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Swansea City (Visit)

Prediction 38.23%2.62fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.21%38.28%38.19%39.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.442.452.5545.45%40.93%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.24%3.67fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.85%27.34%27.28%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.373.403.5031.75%29.69%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lincoln City (Local): 34.53%; Swansea City (Visit): 38.23%; Draw: 27.24%. For Lincoln City (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.92, producing a positive expected value of +0.839%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV +0.839%E +0.287%K +0.437%G +0.004%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.76%EV -9.02%E -3.79%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 17:15
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV +0.839%E +0.287%K +0.437%G +0.004%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.76%EV -9.02%E -3.79%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 17:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.37%EV -3.31%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.74%EV -2.52%E -0.988%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.37%EV -3.31%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.74%EV -2.52%E -0.988%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.37%EV -3.31%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.74%EV -2.52%E -0.988%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 14:25
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -3.31%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -8.75%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 17:15
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.03%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 16:44
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.03%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 16:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.03%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 17:11
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.03%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 16:55
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 16:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 16:45
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:44
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:45
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:45
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:44
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.66%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 16:24
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:25
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:25
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:25
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.43%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:25
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -8.75%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 17:50
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 17:15
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.76%E -2.50%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 17:14
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.67%EV -7.10%E -2.64%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.91%EV -5.96%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:11
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.67%EV -7.10%E -2.64%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.91%EV -5.96%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 16:55
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -8.49%E -3.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.21%EV -5.20%E -2.10%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -8.49%E -3.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.12%EV -9.18%E -3.49%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.71%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.69%EV -9.18%E -3.49%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.24%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:25
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.69%EV -9.18%E -3.49%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.24%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:25
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.69%EV -9.18%E -3.49%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.24%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -9.18%E -3.49%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -7.11%E -2.92%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -12.84%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 14:25
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.52%E -3.63%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.25%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 16:20
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.52%E -3.63%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.25%E -3.44%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -10.21%E -3.93%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -10.17%E -4.33%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -8.75%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 16:15
ReBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 34.46%EV -10.56%E -4.08%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.82%EV -9.78%E -4.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.72%EV -12.29%E -3.82%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.13%EV -11.25%E -4.38%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.47%EV -12.84%E -5.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -12.84%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -11.94%E -4.68%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.99%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -14.20%E -4.51%K -6.60%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-12 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.59%EV -15.39%E -6.28%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.52%EV -15.90%E -7.23%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.90%EV -14.20%E -4.51%K -6.60%G +0.000%18.0%2026-09-12 16:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 33.64%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.17%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.20%13.0%2026-09-12 19:25
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 34.40%2.34I 42.74%NM 37.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.96%13.5%2026-09-12 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 27.52%1.04I 96.15%NM 44.46%1.65I 60.61%NM 28.02%116.3%2026-09-12 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 27.52%1.04I 96.15%NM 44.46%1.65I 60.61%NM 28.02%116.3%2026-09-12 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 27.52%1.04I 96.15%NM 44.46%1.65I 60.61%NM 28.02%116.3%2026-09-12 19:35