Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nordsjaelland v AGF Aarhus

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 AGF Aarhus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nordsjaelland (Local)

Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV +4.00%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.074%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.54%32.94%33.05%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.842.853.1538.46%35.22%35.09%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AGF Aarhus (Visit)

Prediction 41.68%2.40fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.57%41.75%41.71%43.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.192.202.3549.50%45.63%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.30%3.95fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.474%
Kelly -0.638%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%25.32%25.24%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.623.653.8831.25%27.59%27.40%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nordsjaelland (Local): 33.02%; AGF Aarhus (Visit): 41.68%; Draw: 25.30%. For FC Nordsjaelland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.85%EV +4.00%E +1.27%K +1.86%G +0.074%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.58%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.85%EV +4.00%E +1.27%K +1.86%G +0.074%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.58%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 15:55
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -10.80%E -5.04%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:24
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:54
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:54
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:54
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:24
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:25
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -0.952%E -0.317%K -0.476%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 15:55
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -0.952%E -0.317%K -0.476%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -0.952%E -0.317%K -0.476%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 15:25
GTbets🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.43%EV -2.27%E -0.768%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.91%EV -4.54%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.66%EV -5.38%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-22 05:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -2.60%E -0.882%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.65%EV -13.30%E -6.39%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 15:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -2.60%E -0.882%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.73%EV -14.13%E -6.86%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -5.79%E -2.56%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -5.79%E -2.56%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 15:55
BetAnything🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -5.79%E -2.56%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 15:54
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.89%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 10:39
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.19%EV -2.04%E -0.869%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.21%EV -2.85%E -0.742%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 15:45
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 15:54
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.67%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.73%EV -15.80%E -7.82%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.72%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.60%EV -5.57%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.19%EV -7.88%E -3.56%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 15:55
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 15:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 11:15
Everygame🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 15:54
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 15:34
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 15:54
Suprabets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.93%EV -6.23%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.14%EV -5.89%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 15:55
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -2.60%E -0.674%K -0.911%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 15:49
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 15:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 15:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 15:49
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 15:50
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 15:49
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:44
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:44
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 15:53
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -9.87%E -3.61%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.65%EV -2.46%E -1.05%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV -1.84%E -0.474%K -0.638%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 15:55
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 15:50
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 15:44
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 11:14
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:34
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.79%EV -14.55%E -7.10%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 32.69%EV -11.52%E -4.30%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.13%EV -13.30%E -6.39%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.18%EV -11.96%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 15:34
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.93%EV -13.17%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.57%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 15:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.68%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-23 11:14
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.21%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.12%EV -14.55%E -7.10%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.67%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 15:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.78%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.63%EV -19.04%E -5.95%K -8.66%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-23 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Matchbook2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Smarkets2.96I 33.78%NM 33.17%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.96%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.86%1.8%2026-04-23 15:55