La escuela de los momios

FC Nordsjaelland v AGF Aarhus

Inicio: 2026-04-23 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 AGF Aarhus

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Nordsjaelland (Local)

Predicción 33.02%3.03momio equitativo
EV +4.00%
Ventaja +1.27%
Kelly +1.86%
Crecimiento +0.074%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.54%32.94%33.05%34.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.842.853.1538.46%35.22%35.09%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

AGF Aarhus (Visitante)

Predicción 41.68%2.40momio equitativo
EV -2.04%
Ventaja -0.869%
Kelly -1.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.57%41.75%41.71%43.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.022.192.202.3549.50%45.63%45.45%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.30%3.95momio equitativo
EV -1.84%
Ventaja -0.474%
Kelly -0.638%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.44%25.32%25.24%26.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.623.653.8831.25%27.59%27.40%25.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.85%EV +4.00%E +1.27%K +1.86%G +0.074%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.58%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 15:55
Svenska Spel3.15I 31.75%NM 30.85%EV +4.00%E +1.27%K +1.86%G +0.074%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.58%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 15:55
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -10.80%E -5.04%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 15:24
Unibet (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:55
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:54
Casumo3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:54
betPARX3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 15:54
Unibet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:24
Grosvenor3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV +0.698%E +0.229%K +0.341%G +0.002%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:25
LeoVegas3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -0.952%E -0.317%K -0.476%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 15:55
TABtouch3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -0.952%E -0.317%K -0.476%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.56%EV -11.63%E -5.49%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -0.952%E -0.317%K -0.476%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 15:25
GTbets2.96I 33.78%NM 32.43%EV -2.27%E -0.768%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.91%EV -4.54%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.66%EV -5.38%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-22 05:09
LiveScore Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -2.60%E -0.882%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.65%EV -13.30%E -6.39%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 15:24
Virgin Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -2.60%E -0.882%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.73%EV -14.13%E -6.86%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 15:55
LowVig.ag2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -5.79%E -2.56%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 15:55
BetOnline.ag2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -5.79%E -2.56%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 15:55
BetAnything2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -5.79%E -2.56%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 15:54
Betsson2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -3.59%E -1.23%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.89%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 10:39
Pinnacle2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.19%EV -2.04%E -0.869%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.21%EV -2.85%E -0.742%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 15:45
NordicBet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 15:54
Betway2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 15:50
PMU (FR)2.88I 34.72%NM 30.67%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.73%EV -15.80%E -7.82%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.72%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 15:55
Marathon Bet2.86I 34.97%NM 32.60%EV -5.57%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.19%EV -7.88%E -3.56%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 15:55
DraftKings2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 15:35
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 11:15
Everygame2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 15:54
BetMGM2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 15:34
BetUS2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 15:54
Suprabets2.84I 35.21%NM 32.93%EV -6.23%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.04%E -3.16%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.14%EV -5.89%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 15:55
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -2.60%E -0.674%K -0.911%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 15:49
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.56%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.13%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 15:44
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 15:50
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 15:49
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 15:50
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 15:49
888sport2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:44
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:45
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:44
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 15:44
Bet Victor2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.21%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 15:53
1xBet2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -9.87%E -3.61%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.65%EV -2.46%E -1.05%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV -1.84%E -0.474%K -0.638%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 15:55
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -6.21%E -2.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 15:50
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 15:44
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 15:45
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 11:14
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:34
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.38%E -4.83%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:34
Unibet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -10.86%E -4.02%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.79%EV -14.55%E -7.10%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Betclic (FR)2.68I 37.31%NM 32.69%EV -11.52%E -4.30%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.13%EV -13.30%E -6.39%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.18%EV -11.96%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 15:34
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 33.93%EV -13.17%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.57%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 15:44
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.68%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-23 11:14
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 33.21%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.12%EV -14.55%E -7.10%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.67%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 15:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 32.78%EV -14.16%E -5.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.63%EV -19.04%E -5.95%K -8.66%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-23 15:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Matchbook2.98I 33.56%NM 33.25%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-04-23 15:50
Smarkets2.96I 33.78%NM 33.17%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.96%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.86%1.8%2026-04-23 15:55