Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AGF Aarhus v Viborg FF

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Final: AGF Aarhus 6–2 Viborg FF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Prediction 45.82%2.18fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.687%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%45.93%45.79%47.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.022.022.1553.48%49.53%49.50%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Viborg FF (Visit)

Prediction 29.72%3.37fair odd
EV -0.450%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.191%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.26%29.69%29.67%30.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.133.103.3534.72%31.96%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.246%
Kelly +0.325%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.81%24.38%24.54%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.703.704.1332.26%27.06%27.03%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AGF Aarhus (Local): 45.82%; Viborg FF (Visit): 29.72%; Draw: 24.46%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -7.43%E -3.68%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.84%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.05%EV +1.02%E +0.246%K +0.325%G +0.003%5.1%2026-05-17 07:45
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV +0.282%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:15
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV +0.282%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:40
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -9.27%E -4.68%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.34%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:10
Suprabets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.71%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.94%EV -7.28%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 07:37
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 04:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -10.18%E -5.20%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 08:05
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 05:15
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:18
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.42%EV -3.77%E -1.79%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.81%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -5.83%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 07:55
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 08:15
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 08:20
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 08:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.14%EV -1.48%E -0.687%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.97%EV -0.450%E -0.134%K -0.191%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.14%EV -1.48%E -0.687%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.97%EV -0.450%E -0.134%K -0.191%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 00:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.39%E -2.03%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 19:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 07:55
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:54
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 08:20
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 08:21
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 19:55
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 07:40
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.56%EV -14.31%E -7.65%K -16.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -14.42%E -5.01%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-17 07:40
GTbets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.18%EV -3.77%E -1.79%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.38%EV -4.02%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.44%EV -8.77%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 16:06
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 05:20
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 07:38
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.36%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -10.72%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:15
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:15
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:20
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:20
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.13%EV -5.60%E -2.72%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 00:45
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.13%EV -5.60%E -2.72%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 00:45
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-15 11:54
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:36
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.76%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.45%EV -9.96%E -3.29%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-17 04:04
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.04%EV -10.18%E -5.20%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -13.82%E -4.77%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 19:55
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 00:45
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -7.43%E -3.68%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -6.39%E -2.03%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 09:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.34%EV -11.56%E -5.99%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -12.34%E -4.18%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 04:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -15.62%E -4.53%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 09:20
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.32%EV -11.10%E -5.72%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -9.36%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-17 00:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -12.48%E -6.53%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -24.18%E -7.80%K -11.51%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-15 12:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:15
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 46.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.26%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-17 05:35