La escuela de los momios

AGF Aarhus v Viborg FF

Inicio: 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Final: AGF Aarhus 6–2 Viborg FF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Predicción 45.82%2.18momio equitativo
EV -1.48%
Ventaja -0.687%
Kelly -1.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.39%45.93%45.79%47.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.872.022.022.1553.48%49.53%49.50%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Viborg FF (Visitante)

Predicción 29.72%3.37momio equitativo
EV -0.450%
Ventaja -0.134%
Kelly -0.191%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.26%29.69%29.67%30.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.133.103.3534.72%31.96%32.26%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.46%4.09momio equitativo
EV +1.02%
Ventaja +0.246%
Kelly +0.325%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.81%24.38%24.54%27.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.703.704.1332.26%27.06%27.03%24.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -7.43%E -3.68%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.84%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.05%EV +1.02%E +0.246%K +0.325%G +0.003%5.1%2026-05-17 07:45
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV +0.282%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:15
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV +0.282%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:15
LowVig.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:40
BetOnline.ag2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:40
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -9.27%E -4.68%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.34%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:10
Suprabets2.00I 50.00%NM 46.71%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.94%EV -7.28%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 07:37
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 04:05
Marathon Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -10.18%E -5.20%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 08:05
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 05:15
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:18
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.42%EV -3.77%E -1.79%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.81%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -5.83%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 07:55
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 07:55
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 08:15
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 08:20
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 08:20
Svenska Spel2.15I 46.51%NM 45.14%EV -1.48%E -0.687%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.97%EV -0.450%E -0.134%K -0.191%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 00:45
ATG (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 45.14%EV -1.48%E -0.687%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.97%EV -0.450%E -0.134%K -0.191%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 00:45
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.39%E -2.03%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 19:55
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 07:55
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:54
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 08:20
BetAnything2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 08:21
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 19:55
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 07:40
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 46.56%EV -14.31%E -7.65%K -16.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -14.42%E -5.01%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-17 07:40
GTbets2.10I 47.62%NM 45.18%EV -3.77%E -1.79%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.38%EV -4.02%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.44%EV -8.77%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 16:06
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 05:20
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 07:38
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.36%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -10.72%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:20
Unibet (NL)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:15
Casumo2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:15
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:20
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.69%E -2.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -3.42%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 09:20
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.13%EV -5.60%E -2.72%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 00:45
Grosvenor2.06I 48.54%NM 45.13%EV -5.60%E -2.72%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 00:45
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-15 11:54
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:36
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:40
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:40
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.06%E -2.96%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:40
Betclic (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.76%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.45%EV -9.96%E -3.29%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-17 04:04
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.64%E -5.46%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Winamax (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.04%EV -10.18%E -5.20%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -13.82%E -4.77%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 19:55
LeoVegas2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 00:45
TABtouch2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -6.52%E -3.20%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.91%E -1.53%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 00:45
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -7.43%E -3.68%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -6.39%E -2.03%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 09:20
Unibet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 45.34%EV -11.56%E -5.99%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -12.34%E -4.18%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 04:05
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -15.62%E -4.53%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 09:20
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.35%E -4.18%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:15
PMU (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.32%EV -11.10%E -5.72%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -9.36%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-17 00:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -12.48%E -6.53%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -10.85%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -24.18%E -7.80%K -11.51%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-15 12:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%0.8%2026-05-17 08:15
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 46.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.26%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-17 05:35