Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AGF Aarhus v SonderjyskE

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 16:00 UTC

Final: AGF Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskE

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Prediction 69.79%1.43fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -5.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.22%69.62%69.97%71.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.331.331.4078.74%75.11%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SonderjyskE (Visit)

Prediction 12.65%7.90fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +0.306%
Kelly +0.349%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.60%12.74%12.41%14.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.237.508.1016.67%13.83%13.33%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.56%5.69fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.264%
Kelly -0.321%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.89%17.64%17.62%18.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.155.105.6120.83%19.41%19.61%17.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AGF Aarhus (Local): 69.79%; SonderjyskE (Visit): 12.65%; Draw: 17.56%. For SonderjyskE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.90. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.66%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.60%EV +2.48%E +0.306%K +0.349%G +0.009%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:40
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.66%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.60%EV +2.48%E +0.306%K +0.349%G +0.009%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV +1.22%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 15:33
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -8.58%E -6.55%K -27.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +1.22%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.76%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.96I 12.56%NM 12.09%EV +0.710%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.15%EV -1.48%E -0.264%K -0.321%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV -1.31%E -0.169%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV -1.31%E -0.169%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.34%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.98%EV -1.95%E -0.251%K -0.288%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 15:36
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.86%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 12.42%EV -3.21%E -0.420%K -0.483%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.72%EV -5.87%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Suprabets🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.31%EV -3.84%E -0.506%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -5.17%E -0.957%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.27%EV -3.84%E -0.506%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 15:14
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 15:15
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 15:35
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:35
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 15:35
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:55
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 15:20
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.98%E -7.73%K -34.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 15:56
GTbets🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.47%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.31I 13.68%NM 12.83%EV -7.51%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 15:35
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -8.27%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 15:45
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:25
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 15:55
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 15:15
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:45
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -8.68%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:55
BetAnything🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -8.68%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 15:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.92%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -13.95%E -2.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 15:45
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.70%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.99%EV -10.67%E -8.34%K -38.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -15.70%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.14%EV -11.37%E -8.95%K -42.12%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.30%EV -16.50%E -2.50%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.08%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -17.76%E -2.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -5.17%E -0.957%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -17.76%E -2.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 15:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.44%EV -10.67%E -8.34%K -38.12%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.69%EV -19.03%E -2.97%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -13.95%E -2.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-03 15:51
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.12%EV -9.98%E -7.73%K -34.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.8%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.91%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%0.8%2026-05-03 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-03 15:55
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.20%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.64%1.8%2026-05-03 15:55