L’École des cotes

AGF Aarhus v SonderjyskE

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-03 16:00 UTC

Score final : AGF Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskE

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Prévision 69.79%1.43cote équitable
EV -2.30%
Avantage -1.64%
Kelly -5.75%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.22%69.62%69.97%71.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.271.331.331.4078.74%75.11%75.19%71.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

SonderjyskE (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.65%7.90cote équitable
EV +2.48%
Avantage +0.306%
Kelly +0.349%
Croissance +0.009%

avec la cote maximale 8.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.60%12.74%12.41%14.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.007.237.508.1016.67%13.83%13.33%12.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.56%5.69cote équitable
EV -1.48%
Avantage -0.264%
Kelly -0.321%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.89%17.64%17.62%18.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.805.155.105.6120.83%19.41%19.61%17.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Betsson1.33I 75.19%NM 70.66%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.60%EV +2.48%E +0.306%K +0.349%G +0.009%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:40
NordicBet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.66%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.60%EV +2.48%E +0.306%K +0.349%G +0.009%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:40
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV +1.22%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 15:33
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -8.58%E -6.55%K -27.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +1.22%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Pinnacle1.36I 73.53%NM 70.76%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.96I 12.56%NM 12.09%EV +0.710%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.15%EV -1.48%E -0.264%K -0.321%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 15:45
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV -1.31%E -0.169%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:55
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV -1.31%E -0.169%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:55
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.34%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.98%EV -1.95%E -0.251%K -0.288%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 15:36
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.86%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 12.42%EV -3.21%E -0.420%K -0.483%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.72%EV -5.87%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Suprabets1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.31%EV -3.84%E -0.506%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -5.17%E -0.957%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:19
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.27%EV -3.84%E -0.506%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 15:45
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 15:45
DraftKings1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 15:14
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:51
Unibet (NL)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Unibet (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 15:15
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:45
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:45
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 15:35
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:35
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Bet Right1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 15:35
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:55
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 15:20
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.98%E -7.73%K -34.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 15:56
GTbets1.35I 74.07%NM 69.47%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.31I 13.68%NM 12.83%EV -7.51%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 15:35
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -8.27%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 15:45
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:25
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Unibet (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 15:55
Betway1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 15:15
TABtouch1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:51
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:45
BetUS1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -8.68%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:55
BetAnything1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -8.68%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 15:20
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 15:50
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.92%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -13.95%E -2.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 15:45
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.70%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 15:55
PMU (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 68.99%EV -10.67%E -8.34%K -38.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -15.70%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Unibet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 69.14%EV -11.37%E -8.95%K -42.12%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.30%EV -16.50%E -2.50%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 15:45
Winamax (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.08%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -17.76%E -2.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -5.17%E -0.957%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 15:20
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -17.76%E -2.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 15:39
Betclic (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 68.44%EV -10.67%E -8.34%K -38.12%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.69%EV -19.03%E -2.97%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -13.95%E -2.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-03 15:51
Neds1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:36
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Winamax (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.12%EV -9.98%E -7.73%K -34.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 15:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.8%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.91%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%0.8%2026-05-03 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-03 15:55
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.20%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.64%1.8%2026-05-03 15:55