La escuela de los momios

AGF Aarhus v SonderjyskE

Inicio: 2026-05-03 16:00 UTC

Final: AGF Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskE

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Predicción 69.79%1.43momio equitativo
EV -2.30%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -5.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.22%69.62%69.97%71.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.271.331.331.4078.74%75.11%75.19%71.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SonderjyskE (Visitante)

Predicción 12.65%7.90momio equitativo
EV +2.48%
Ventaja +0.306%
Kelly +0.349%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.60%12.74%12.41%14.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.007.237.508.1016.67%13.83%13.33%12.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 17.56%5.69momio equitativo
EV -1.48%
Ventaja -0.264%
Kelly -0.321%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.89%17.64%17.62%18.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.805.155.105.6120.83%19.41%19.61%17.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.33I 75.19%NM 70.66%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.60%EV +2.48%E +0.306%K +0.349%G +0.009%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:40
NordicBet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.66%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.60%EV +2.48%E +0.306%K +0.349%G +0.009%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:40
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV +1.22%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 15:33
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -8.58%E -6.55%K -27.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +1.22%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Pinnacle1.36I 73.53%NM 70.76%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.96I 12.56%NM 12.09%EV +0.710%E +0.089%K +0.102%G +0.001%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.15%EV -1.48%E -0.264%K -0.321%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 15:45
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV -1.31%E -0.169%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:55
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 70.80%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV -1.31%E -0.169%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:55
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.34%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.98%EV -1.95%E -0.251%K -0.288%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 15:36
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.86%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 12.42%EV -3.21%E -0.420%K -0.483%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.72%EV -5.87%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Suprabets1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.31%EV -3.84%E -0.506%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -5.17%E -0.957%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:19
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.27%EV -3.84%E -0.506%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 15:45
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.93%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 15:45
DraftKings1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 15:14
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:51
Unibet (NL)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Unibet (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 15:15
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:45
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:45
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 15:35
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:35
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Bet Right1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 15:35
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:55
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 15:20
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.98%E -7.73%K -34.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -5.11%E -0.681%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 15:56
GTbets1.35I 74.07%NM 69.47%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.31I 13.68%NM 12.83%EV -7.51%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -6.92%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 15:35
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -8.27%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 15:45
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -2.30%E -1.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:25
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.09%E -3.74%K -14.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -7.80%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Unibet (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -3.41%E -0.620%K -0.758%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 15:55
Betway1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -5.79%E -4.29%K -16.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 15:15
TABtouch1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:51
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -6.49%E -4.84%K -19.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 15:45
BetUS1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -8.68%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:55
BetAnything1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -8.68%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 15:20
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 15:50
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.92%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -13.95%E -2.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 15:45
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.70%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 15:55
PMU (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 68.99%EV -10.67%E -8.34%K -38.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -11.44%E -1.63%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -15.70%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Unibet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 69.14%EV -11.37%E -8.95%K -42.12%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.30%EV -16.50%E -2.50%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 15:45
Winamax (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.08%EV -7.88%E -5.97%K -24.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -17.76%E -2.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -5.17%E -0.957%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 15:20
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -9.28%E -7.14%K -30.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -17.76%E -2.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 15:39
Betclic (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 68.44%EV -10.67%E -8.34%K -38.12%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.69%EV -19.03%E -2.97%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -13.95%E -2.85%K -3.58%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-03 15:51
Neds1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:36
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.18%E -5.40%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:35
Winamax (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.12%EV -9.98%E -7.73%K -34.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -24.09%E -4.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -10.44%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 15:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.8%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.91%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%0.8%2026-05-03 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-03 15:56
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-05-03 15:55
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.20%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.64%1.8%2026-05-03 15:55