The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Santos v Recoleta FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 00:30 UTC

Final: Santos 1–1 Recoleta FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos (Local)

Prediction 86.84%1.15fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -32.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.76%86.62%86.84%89.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.071.081.1196.15%93.60%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Recoleta FC (Visit)

Prediction 3.49%28.66fair odd
EV +18.63%
Edge +0.548%
Kelly +0.565%
Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.72%3.57%3.49%4.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0027.6929.0034.005.56%3.61%3.45%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.67%10.34fair odd
EV +16.07%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.235%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.82%9.80%9.67%12.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.6910.0012.0014.29%10.32%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos (Local): 86.84%; Recoleta FC (Visit): 3.49%; Draw: 9.67%. For Recoleta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.66. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.41%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV +18.63%E +0.548%K +0.565%G +0.105%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +16.07%E +1.34%K +1.46%G +0.235%6.5%2026-04-15 00:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.97%EV -3.61%E -3.25%K -32.81%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.15%EV +8.16%E +0.263%K +0.272%G +0.022%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.88%EV +6.39%E +0.581%K +0.639%G +0.041%2.4%2026-04-15 00:20
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%28.30I 3.53%NM 3.35%EV -1.26%E -0.044%K -0.046%G +0.000%10.81I 9.25%NM 8.78%EV +4.56%E +0.421%K +0.464%G +0.021%5.4%2026-04-15 00:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003%5.4%2026-04-15 00:20
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003%5.4%2026-04-15 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003%5.4%2026-04-15 00:15
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003%5.4%2026-04-15 00:20
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.38%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV -9.28%E -0.357%K -0.371%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003%6.0%2026-04-14 23:59
Bovada🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.10%EV -7.08%E -6.62%K -101.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -9.28%E -0.357%K -0.371%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-15 00:20
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.81%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +8.16%E +0.263%K +0.272%G +0.022%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-15 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.63%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-15 00:20
Paddy Power🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.31%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -9.28%E -0.357%K -0.371%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-15 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.73%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.73%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 00:20
LeoVegas🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.73%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 00:20
Coral🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -7.08%E -6.62%K -101.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -33.71%E -1.77%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.11%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-15 00:19
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 00:19
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 00:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 00:20
Sky Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 85.83%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.25%EV -26.73%E -1.27%K -1.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-15 00:10
Coolbet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -3.61%E -3.25%K -32.81%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -19.75%E -0.859%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 09:45
betfred_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.85%EV -7.95%E -7.50%K -132.52%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.91%EV -19.75%E -0.859%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -22.62%E -2.83%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-15 00:10
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.58%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +18.63%E +0.548%K +0.565%G +0.105%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.70%EV -23.59%E -2.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-15 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 82.76%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.83%EV -37.20%E -2.07%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.41%EV -32.29%E -4.61%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-15 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.21%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%0.8%2026-04-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.21%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%0.8%2026-04-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.21%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%0.8%2026-04-15 00:20
Matchbook◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.12%44.00I 2.27%NM 2.25%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%0.9%2026-04-15 00:20
Smarkets◎1.10I 90.91%NM 89.75%42.02I 2.38%NM 2.35%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.3%2026-04-15 00:20