L’École des cotesFrançais
Santos v Recoleta FC
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Santos (Local)
Prévision 86.84%1.15cote équitable
EV -3.61%
Avantage -3.25%
Kelly -32.81%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.11
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
82.76%86.62%86.84%89.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.041.071.081.1196.15%93.60%92.59%90.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Recoleta FC (Visiteur)
Prévision 3.49%28.66cote équitable
EV +18.63%
Avantage +0.548%
Kelly +0.565%
Croissance +0.105%
avec la cote maximale 34.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
2.72%3.57%3.49%4.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
18.0027.6929.0034.005.56%3.61%3.45%2.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 9.67%10.34cote équitable
EV +16.07%
Avantage +1.34%
Kelly +1.46%
Croissance +0.235%
avec la cote maximale 12.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.82%9.80%9.67%12.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.009.6910.0012.0014.29%10.32%10.00%8.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.41%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV +18.63%E +0.548%K +0.565%G +0.105% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +16.07%E +1.34%K +1.46%G +0.235% | 6.5% | 2026-04-15 00:19 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.97%EV -3.61%E -3.25%K -32.81%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.15%EV +8.16%E +0.263%K +0.272%G +0.022% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.88%EV +6.39%E +0.581%K +0.639%G +0.041% | 2.4% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 28.30I 3.53%NM 3.35%EV -1.26%E -0.044%K -0.046%G +0.000% | 10.81I 9.25%NM 8.78%EV +4.56%E +0.421%K +0.464%G +0.021% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 00:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Unibet | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 00:15 |
| Casumo | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.81%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV +4.67%E +0.156%K +0.161%G +0.008% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| DraftKings | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.38%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV -9.28%E -0.357%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 6.0% | 2026-04-14 23:59 |
| Bovada | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.10%EV -7.08%E -6.62%K -101.18%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -9.28%E -0.357%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.81%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +8.16%E +0.263%K +0.272%G +0.022% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.63%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.31%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -9.28%E -0.357%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-15 00:10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.73%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.73%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.73%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.15%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Coral | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.55%EV -7.08%E -6.62%K -101.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -33.71%E -1.77%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -8.11%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-15 00:19 |
| William Hill | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 00:19 |
| 888sport | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.41%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +1.19%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.83%EV -9.69%E -9.32%K -242.19%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.25%EV -26.73%E -1.27%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-15 00:10 |
| Coolbet | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -3.61%E -3.25%K -32.81%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -19.75%E -0.859%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-14 09:45 |
| betfred_uk | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.85%EV -7.95%E -7.50%K -132.52%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.91%EV -19.75%E -0.859%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -22.62%E -2.83%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-15 00:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.58%EV -6.21%E -5.75%K -77.68%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +18.63%E +0.548%K +0.565%G +0.105% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.70%EV -23.59%E -2.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 82.76%EV -8.82%E -8.40%K -176.39%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 4.83%EV -37.20%E -2.07%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.41%EV -32.29%E -4.61%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.21% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 0.8% | 2026-04-15 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.21% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 0.8% | 2026-04-15 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.21% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.16% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 0.8% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Matchbook | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.12% | 44.00I 2.27%NM 2.25% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63% | 0.9% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.10I 90.91%NM 89.75% | 42.02I 2.38%NM 2.35% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90% | 1.3% | 2026-04-15 00:20 |