The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Recoleta FC v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 00:30 UTC

Final: Recoleta FC 1–1 Santos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Recoleta FC (Local)

Prediction 13.40%7.46fair odd
EV +0.471%
Edge +0.063%
Kelly +0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.66%13.47%13.57%15.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.526.507.5017.39%15.34%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 63.58%1.57fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.09%63.56%63.54%64.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.461.5371.43%68.64%68.73%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.02%4.34fair odd
EV +3.61%
Edge +0.802%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%22.97%22.89%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.124.184.5026.32%24.28%23.95%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Recoleta FC (Local): 13.40%; Santos (Visit): 63.58%; Draw: 23.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.94%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -2.72%E -1.78%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +3.61%E +0.802%K +1.03%G +0.037%3.0%2026-05-06 00:05
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -16.27%E -2.60%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV +1.31%E +0.297%K +0.385%G +0.005%5.8%2026-05-06 00:24
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -16.27%E -2.60%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV +1.31%E +0.297%K +0.385%G +0.005%5.8%2026-05-06 00:24
Unibet (NL)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -16.27%E -2.60%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV +1.31%E +0.297%K +0.385%G +0.005%5.8%2026-05-06 00:24
Svenska Spel🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -16.27%E -2.60%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV +1.31%E +0.297%K +0.385%G +0.005%5.8%2026-05-06 00:24
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -6.23%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.44%EV -6.54%E -4.45%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.03%EV -0.994%E -0.231%K -0.301%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-06 00:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -19.62%E -3.27%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.50%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -2.15%E -0.505%K -0.660%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 00:24
Virgin Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -19.62%E -3.27%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.50%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -2.15%E -0.505%K -0.660%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 00:24
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -19.62%E -3.27%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.50%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -2.15%E -0.505%K -0.660%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -19.62%E -3.27%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.50%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -2.15%E -0.505%K -0.660%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 00:24
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -5.90%E -3.99%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -3.30%E -0.785%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 00:04
Bovada🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -5.90%E -3.99%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -3.30%E -0.785%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 00:23
betfred_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -3.30%E -0.785%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-06 00:24
Pinnacle🎯6.98I 14.33%NM 13.57%EV -6.49%E -0.930%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.59%EV -5.27%E -3.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.83%EV -4.45%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-06 00:20
1xBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV +0.471%E +0.063%K +0.072%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -5.90%E -3.99%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -5.60%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 00:19
Coolbet🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.85%EV -0.868%E -0.117%K -0.136%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.38%EV -4.63%E -3.09%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -7.90%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-05 20:40
SportsBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -7.90%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 00:15
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -7.90%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 00:15
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -14.26%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.11%EV -5.27%E -3.53%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 00:20
Coral🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -22.97%E -4.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -5.90%E -3.99%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -10.20%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-06 00:20
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.68%EV -12.93%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.52%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.20%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-06 00:24
Unibet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -19.62%E -3.27%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.80%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -10.20%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-06 00:04
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.23%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.51%E -3.29%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 00:24
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.23%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.51%E -3.29%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 00:24
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.23%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.51%E -3.29%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 00:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.23%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.51%E -3.29%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 00:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%0.4%2026-05-06 00:25
Matchbook◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-05-06 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-05-06 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-05-06 00:25
Smarkets◎7.60I 13.16%NM 12.83%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.16%2.6%2026-05-06 00:25