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Nacional Asunción (Par) v Recoleta FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nacional Asunción (Par) (Local)
Prediction 52.18%1.92fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.61%52.28%52.25%53.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.761.751.8558.82%56.97%57.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Recoleta FC (Visit)
Prediction 19.77%5.06fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.316%
Kelly +0.392%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 5.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.17%19.69%19.69%21.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.794.755.1423.81%20.88%21.05%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.05%3.57fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.525%
Kelly -0.735%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.98%28.03%28.06%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.353.5032.26%30.10%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional Asunción (Par) (Local): 52.18%; Recoleta FC (Visit): 19.77%; Draw: 28.05%. For Recoleta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -8.16%E -4.64%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.42%EV +1.62%E +0.316%K +0.392%G +0.006% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.77%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.95%EV -4.51%E -2.46%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 19.04%EV +0.633%E +0.124%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 28.01%EV -2.96%E -0.855%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.67%EV -11.29%E -6.64%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -1.15%E -0.229%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -11.29%E -6.64%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -1.15%E -0.229%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.28%EV -6.59%E -3.68%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.46%EV -3.12%E -0.637%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.84%E -0.525%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.64%E -4.31%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -3.12%E -0.637%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.64%E -4.31%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -3.12%E -0.637%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.64%E -4.31%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -3.12%E -0.637%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.64%E -4.31%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -3.12%E -0.637%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.64%E -4.31%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -5.10%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -1.84%E -0.525%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.56%EV -11.29%E -6.64%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -5.10%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.17%EV -9.72%E -5.62%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.91%EV -7.11%E -4.00%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -7.08%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 21:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.35%EV -10.77%E -6.30%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -7.08%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.35%EV -10.77%E -6.30%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -7.08%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.35%EV -10.77%E -6.30%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -7.08%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-05 21:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.61%EV -3.46%E -1.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -10.04%E -2.21%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 11:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -11.03%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.45%E -2.26%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 21:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -16.96%E -4.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.61% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.23% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.15% | 0.1% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.45% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07% | 0.4% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.28% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98% | 0.7% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.28% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98% | 0.7% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.34% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.83% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.83% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |