The School of Odds
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Millonarios v Sao Paulo

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 00:30 UTC

Final: Millonarios 0–0 Sao Paulo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millonarios (Local)

Prediction 37.70%2.65fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.14%37.70%37.94%38.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.432.5043.48%41.39%41.15%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 31.78%3.15fair odd
EV +0.110%
Edge +0.035%
Kelly +0.051%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.82%31.78%31.79%32.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.1537.04%34.33%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.52%3.28fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.79%30.52%30.27%31.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.2035.71%33.15%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Millonarios (Local): 37.70%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 31.78%; Draw: 30.52%. For Sao Paulo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.147. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.150, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.110%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%EV -5.74%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV +0.110%E +0.035%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34%EV -2.35%E -0.734%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-18 22:39
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.38%E -3.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.07%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.40%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 22:40
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.38%E -3.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.07%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.40%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 22:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.38%E -3.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.07%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.40%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 22:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.38%E -3.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.07%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.40%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 22:40
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -5.74%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -3.88%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 23:19
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.87%EV -7.25%E -2.95%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.48%EV -5.93%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.65%EV -7.23%E -2.38%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 01:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 22:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 22:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 22:40
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 22:40
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.74%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.40%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 23:48
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.50%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 22:09
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.50%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 22:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.50%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 22:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.50%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -8.47%E -2.94%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.40%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 00:34
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.14%EV -6.50%E -2.62%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.66%EV -10.38%E -3.68%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -6.93%E -2.27%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 18:39
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-15 21:09
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-16 16:05
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 08:15
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -10.64%E -4.49%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -12.60%E -4.58%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-21 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -13.28%E -5.77%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -12.60%E -4.58%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 00:34
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -13.28%E -5.77%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -14.56%E -5.20%K -8.09%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-15 21:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.28I 43.86%NM 37.77%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.13%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.11%16.1%2026-04-22 04:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.88%168.5%2026-04-22 15:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.88%168.5%2026-04-22 15:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.88%168.5%2026-04-22 15:09