Language:English
Lanus v Club Cienciano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lanus (Local)
Prediction 72.55%1.38fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -3.79%
Kelly -16.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.24%72.71%72.49%74.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3181.97%78.72%78.74%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Club Cienciano (Visit)
Prediction 8.70%11.49fair odd
EV +8.81%
Edge +0.704%
Kelly +0.766%
Growth +0.067%
assuming max odds 12.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.41%8.66%8.74%9.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.7411.0012.5011.11%9.31%9.09%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.75%5.33fair odd
EV +4.99%
Edge +0.891%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.054%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.17%18.62%18.77%20.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.455.065.005.6022.47%19.78%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 72.55%; Club Cienciano (Visit): 8.70%; Draw: 18.75%. For Club Cienciano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.49. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.78%EV -6.41%E -4.97%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +8.81%E +0.704%K +0.766%G +0.067% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -16.57%E -3.72%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.96%EV -8.59%E -6.82%K -33.04%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +4.45%E +0.371%K +0.405%G +0.018% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +3.11%E +0.566%K +0.692%G +0.022% | 5.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.32%EV -4.96%E -3.79%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 11.74I 8.52%NM 8.07%EV +2.19%E +0.187%K +0.204%G +0.004% | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.61%EV -9.45%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.34%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +0.101%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.26%EV +4.99%E +0.891%K +1.08%G +0.054% | 3.5% | 2026-07-23 00:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.32%EV -7.86%E -6.19%K -29.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +0.101%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV +1.24%E +0.229%K +0.282%G +0.003% | 6.0% | 2026-07-22 23:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.32%EV -7.86%E -6.19%K -29.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +0.101%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV +1.24%E +0.229%K +0.282%G +0.003% | 6.0% | 2026-07-22 23:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.32%EV -7.86%E -6.19%K -29.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +0.101%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV +1.24%E +0.229%K +0.282%G +0.003% | 6.0% | 2026-07-22 23:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.32%EV -7.86%E -6.19%K -29.13%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +0.101%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV +1.24%E +0.229%K +0.282%G +0.003% | 6.0% | 2026-07-22 23:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.16%EV -1.76%E -0.336%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -6.26%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.32%E -7.45%K -37.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.26%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.32%E -7.45%K -37.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.26%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-22 22:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -10.77%E -8.75%K -46.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.54%EV -2.51%E -0.483%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-22 23:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -10.77%E -8.75%K -46.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.54%EV -2.51%E -0.483%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-22 23:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -10.77%E -8.75%K -46.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.54%EV -2.51%E -0.483%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-22 23:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -10.77%E -8.75%K -46.81%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV -4.25%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.54%EV -2.51%E -0.483%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-22 23:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.79%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.60%E -0.819%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.20%EV -2.51%E -0.483%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -6.41%E -4.97%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV -8.60%E -0.819%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -6.26%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.77%EV -7.14%E -5.58%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.91%EV -2.51%E -0.483%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.41%E -4.97%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.26%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-23 00:23 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.95%E -2.30%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.95%E -2.30%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.95%E -2.30%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.69%E -4.38%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.95%E -2.30%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.52%EV -11.49%E -9.42%K -52.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.85%EV -12.96%E -1.30%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.63%EV -10.95%E -2.30%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.70%EV -10.77%E -8.75%K -46.81%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.41%EV -17.31%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -6.26%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.26%EV -9.32%E -7.45%K -37.26%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.38%EV -17.31%E -1.82%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -13.76%E -2.99%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.46%EV -9.32%E -7.45%K -37.26%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -21.66%E -2.41%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -10.01%E -2.09%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.80% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.11% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.09% | 0.5% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.80% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.11% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.09% | 0.5% | 2026-07-23 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.80% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.11% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.09% | 0.5% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.61% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.35% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04% | 0.8% | 2026-07-23 00:25 |
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