The School of Odds

Lanus v Club Cienciano

2026-07-22 00:00 — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (1 in analysis)

Option 1: Lanus (Local)

Odds
1.2580.00%Min
1.3275.85%Mean
1.3275.76%Median
1.4071.43%Max
Consensus probabilities
66.61%1.501Min
72.00%1.389Max
67.34%1.485Mean
67.34%1.485Median
67.34%1.485IQM
67.34%1.485Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.40 under the IQM model: 67.34%

EV -5.72%Edge -4.09%Kelly -14.31%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Club Cienciano (Visit)

Odds
6.8014.71%Min
7.8712.71%Mean
7.8812.70%Median
9.3010.75%Max
Consensus probabilities
9.96%10.045Min
12.95%7.721Max
12.16%8.220Mean
12.16%8.220Median
12.16%8.220IQM
12.16%8.220Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 9.30 under the IQM model: 12.16%

EV +13.13%Edge +1.41%Kelly +1.58%Growth +0.208%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.9525.32%Min
4.9320.27%Mean
4.9520.20%Median
5.6917.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
17.17%5.823Min
23.44%4.266Max
20.49%4.879Mean
20.49%4.879Median
20.49%4.879IQM
20.49%4.879Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 5.69 under the IQM model: 20.49%

EV +16.62%Edge +2.92%Kelly +3.54%Growth +0.589%

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLanus (Local)Club Cienciano (Visit)Draw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.37I 72.99% NM 71.33%EV -7.74% E -5.65% K -20.93% G +0.000%8.50I 11.76% NM 11.50%EV +3.40% E +0.400% K +0.453% G +0.015%5.69I 17.57% NM 17.17%EV +16.62% E +2.92% K +3.54% G +0.589%2.3%2026-06-23 21:19
Bovada1.33I 75.19% NM 70.06%EV -10.44% E -7.85% K -31.63% G +0.000%7.75I 12.90% NM 12.02%EV -5.72% E -0.739% K -0.848% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 17.92%EV +6.57% E +1.26% K +1.57% G +0.103%7.3%2026-06-24 16:10
Unibet1.32I 75.76% NM 70.48%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.63%EV -2.68% E -0.335% K -0.383% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 17.89%EV +6.57% E +1.26% K +1.57% G +0.103%7.5%2026-06-23 21:10
Unibet (NL)1.32I 75.76% NM 70.48%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.63%EV -2.68% E -0.335% K -0.383% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 17.89%EV +6.57% E +1.26% K +1.57% G +0.103%7.5%2026-06-23 21:10
Casumo1.32I 75.76% NM 70.48%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.63%EV -2.68% E -0.335% K -0.383% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 17.89%EV +6.57% E +1.26% K +1.57% G +0.103%7.5%2026-06-23 21:09
ATG (SE)1.32I 75.76% NM 70.48%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.63%EV -2.68% E -0.335% K -0.383% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 17.89%EV +6.57% E +1.26% K +1.57% G +0.103%7.5%2026-06-23 21:10
Svenska Spel1.32I 75.76% NM 70.48%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.63%EV -2.68% E -0.335% K -0.383% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 17.89%EV +6.57% E +1.26% K +1.57% G +0.103%7.5%2026-06-23 21:10
Codere (IT)1.33I 75.19% NM 69.40%EV -10.44% E -7.85% K -31.63% G +0.000%7.60I 13.16% NM 12.14%EV -7.55% E -0.993% K -1.14% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.46%EV +2.47% E +0.495% K +0.619% G +0.015%8.3%2026-06-02 23:10
SportsBet1.25I 80.00% NM 72.00%EV -15.82% E -12.66% K -63.30% G +0.000%9.00I 11.11% NM 10.00%EV +9.48% E +1.05% K +1.19% G +0.112%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.00%EV +2.47% E +0.495% K +0.619% G +0.015%11.1%2026-06-24 16:09
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00% NM 71.58%EV -15.82% E -12.66% K -63.30% G +0.000%8.50I 11.76% NM 10.53%EV +3.40% E +0.400% K +0.453% G +0.015%5.00I 20.00% NM 17.89%EV +2.47% E +0.495% K +0.619% G +0.015%11.8%2026-06-24 16:09
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76% NM 69.19%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.18%EV -8.76% E -1.17% K -1.35% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 18.64%EV +0.425% E +0.087% K +0.109% G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-23 21:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76% NM 69.19%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.18%EV -8.76% E -1.17% K -1.35% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 18.64%EV +0.425% E +0.087% K +0.109% G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-23 21:09
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76% NM 69.19%EV -11.11% E -8.42% K -34.72% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.18%EV -8.76% E -1.17% K -1.35% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 18.64%EV +0.425% E +0.087% K +0.109% G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-23 21:10
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19% NM 68.89%EV -10.44% E -7.85% K -31.63% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.22%EV -8.76% E -1.17% K -1.35% G +0.000%4.85I 20.62% NM 18.89%EV -0.600% E -0.124% K -0.156% G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-02 10:20
Coral1.33I 75.19% NM 68.16%EV -10.44% E -7.85% K -31.63% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 12.95%EV -14.85% E -2.12% K -2.47% G +0.000%4.80I 20.83% NM 18.89%EV -1.62% E -0.338% K -0.427% G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-04 15:00
Coolbet1.40I 71.43% NM 67.34%EV -5.72% E -4.09% K -14.31% G +0.000%7.75I 12.90% NM 12.16%EV -5.72% E -0.739% K -0.848% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.49%EV -5.72% E -1.24% K -1.59% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 22:40
Unibet (FR)1.27I 78.74% NM 68.07%EV -14.48% E -11.40% K -53.62% G +0.000%6.80I 14.71% NM 12.71%EV -17.28% E -2.54% K -2.98% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 19.21%EV -7.77% E -1.73% K -2.22% G +0.000%15.7%2026-06-01 01:09
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00% NM 68.66%EV -15.82% E -12.66% K -63.30% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 12.26%EV -14.85% E -2.12% K -2.47% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 19.07%EV -7.77% E -1.73% K -2.22% G +0.000%16.5%2026-06-24 16:10
NordicBet1.39I 71.94% NM 66.61%EV -6.40% E -4.60% K -16.40% G +0.000%9.30I 10.75% NM 9.96%EV +13.13% E +1.41% K +1.58% G +0.208%3.95I 25.32% NM 23.44%EV -19.05% E -4.82% K -6.46% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-02 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLanus (Local)Club Cienciano (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%6.40I 15.63%4.40I 22.73%17.1%2026-06-04 07:20
Arbitrage (1 combination)+0.24%Coolbet 1.40 (71.6%) / NordicBet 9.30 (10.8%) / 1xBet 5.69 (17.6%)Show details
Lanus (Local)Club Cienciano (Visit)DrawMargin
Coolbet 1.40 (71.6%)NordicBet 9.30 (10.8%)1xBet 5.69 (17.6%)+0.245%