The School of Odds

Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 00:30 UTC

Final: Independiente Santa Fe 2–0 Caracas FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Independiente Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 68.21%1.47fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -7.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.90%68.21%68.15%70.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.4277%74%74%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Caracas FC (Visit)

Prediction 10.03%9.97fair odd
EV +10.33%
Edge +0.939%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.80%9.91%10.14%11.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.509.439.3511.0013%11%11%9%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 21.76%4.60fair odd
EV +0.101%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.028%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.00%21.88%21.71%22.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.264.254.6025%23%24%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 70.15%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV +10.33%E +0.939%K +1.03%G +0.107%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +0.101%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-24 00:15
Pinnacle1.37I 72.99%NM 68.88%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%10.65I 9.39%NM 8.86%EV +6.82%E +0.640%K +0.707%G +0.048%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.26%EV -7.73%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 00:15
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 68.89%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Casumo1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Svenska Spel1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -4.72%E -0.496%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 00:15
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -4.72%E -0.496%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.60%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 00:15
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.95%EV -4.51%E -3.22%K -11.27%G +0.000%9.35I 10.70%NM 10.18%EV -6.22%E -0.665%K -0.745%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%EV -5.34%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 16:59
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.68%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.97%EV -6.72%E -0.723%K -0.810%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -9.69%E -2.34%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 00:20
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -2.08%E -0.461%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Codere (IT)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.33%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -5.34%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 00:15
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 68.78%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -8.60%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 67.63%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -12.24%E -1.40%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 00:19
1xBet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.09%EV -3.14%E -2.21%K -7.48%G +0.000%8.58I 11.66%NM 11.10%EV -13.94%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.80%EV -4.90%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 00:20
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -14.75%E -1.73%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 00:15
Coral1.35I 74.07%NM 65.90%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -24.78%E -3.30%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-24 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20