La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Independiente Santa Fe (Local)
Predicción 68.21%1.47momio equitativo
EV -3.14%
Ventaja -2.21%
Kelly -7.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.90%68.21%68.15%70.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.301.351.361.4276.92%73.97%73.53%70.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Caracas FC (Visitante)
Predicción 10.03%9.97momio equitativo
EV +10.33%
Ventaja +0.939%
Kelly +1.03%
Crecimiento +0.107%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.80%9.91%10.14%11.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.509.439.3511.0013.33%10.60%10.70%9.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 21.76%4.60momio equitativo
EV +0.101%
Ventaja +0.022%
Kelly +0.028%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.00%21.88%21.71%22.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.264.254.6025.00%23.49%23.53%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (27 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.15%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV +10.33%E +0.939%K +1.03%G +0.107% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +0.101%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.88%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 10.65I 9.39%NM 8.86%EV +6.82%E +0.640%K +0.707%G +0.048% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.26%EV -7.73%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| DraftKings | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.89%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Unibet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Casumo | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -4.72%E -0.496%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| betfred_uk | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -4.72%E -0.496%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.60%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Coolbet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.95%EV -4.51%E -3.22%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 9.35I 10.70%NM 10.18%EV -6.22%E -0.665%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%EV -5.34%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 16:59 |
| NordicBet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.68%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 9.97%EV -6.72%E -0.723%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -9.69%E -2.34%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -2.08%E -0.461%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.33%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -5.34%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| William Hill | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.78%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -8.60%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Bovada | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.63%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -12.24%E -1.40%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-24 00:19 |
| 1xBet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.09%EV -3.14%E -2.21%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 8.58I 11.66%NM 11.10%EV -13.94%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.80%EV -4.90%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -14.75%E -1.73%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Coral | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.90%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -24.78%E -3.30%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |