La scuola delle quote

Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC

Inizio: 2026-07-24 00:30 UTC

Finale: Independiente Santa Fe 2–0 Caracas FC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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27 bookmaker (6 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Independiente Santa Fe (Casa)

Previsione 68.21%1.47quota equa
EV -3.14%
Vantaggio -2.21%
Kelly -7.48%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.42

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
65.90%68.21%68.15%70.15%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.301.351.361.4276.92%73.97%73.53%70.42%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Caracas FC (Trasferta)

Previsione 10.03%9.97quota equa
EV +10.33%
Vantaggio +0.939%
Kelly +1.03%
Crescita +0.107%

ipotizzando la quota massima 11.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
8.80%9.91%10.14%11.86%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
7.509.439.3511.0013.33%10.60%10.70%9.09%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 21.76%4.60quota equa
EV +0.101%
Vantaggio +0.022%
Kelly +0.028%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.60

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
21.00%21.88%21.71%22.80%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.004.264.254.6025.00%23.49%23.53%21.74%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (27 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 70.15%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV +10.33%E +0.939%K +1.03%G +0.107%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +0.101%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-24 00:15
Pinnacle1.37I 72.99%NM 68.88%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%10.65I 9.39%NM 8.86%EV +6.82%E +0.640%K +0.707%G +0.048%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.26%EV -7.73%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 00:15
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 68.89%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Casumo1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Svenska Spel1.35I 74.07%NM 69.36%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.64%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV +0.299%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.30%EV -7.52%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 00:15
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -4.72%E -0.496%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 00:15
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -4.72%E -0.496%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.60%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 00:15
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.95%EV -4.51%E -3.22%K -11.27%G +0.000%9.35I 10.70%NM 10.18%EV -6.22%E -0.665%K -0.745%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%EV -5.34%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 16:59
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.68%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.97%EV -6.72%E -0.723%K -0.810%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -9.69%E -2.34%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 00:20
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -2.08%E -0.461%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Codere (IT)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.33%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -4.25%E -0.966%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -6.55%E -4.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -5.34%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 00:15
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.32%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:20
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 68.78%EV -11.33%E -8.71%K -37.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -9.73%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -8.60%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-24 00:15
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 67.63%EV -5.87%E -4.25%K -15.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -12.24%E -1.40%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 00:19
1xBet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.09%EV -3.14%E -2.21%K -7.48%G +0.000%8.58I 11.66%NM 11.10%EV -13.94%E -1.63%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.80%EV -4.90%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 00:20
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -9.28%E -6.98%K -28.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -14.75%E -1.73%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 00:15
Coral1.35I 74.07%NM 65.90%EV -7.92%E -5.87%K -22.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -24.78%E -3.30%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.96%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-24 00:20
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (4)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.33%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-07-24 00:20