The School of Odds
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Clube Atlético Mineiro v Puerto Cabello

Kickoff: 2026-05-27 22:00 UTC

Final: Clube Atlético Mineiro 1–0 Puerto Cabello

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 72.90%1.37fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -9.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.49%72.82%72.82%75.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3381.97%78.91%78.74%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puerto Cabello (Visit)

Prediction 8.78%11.38fair odd
EV +14.19%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.168%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.51%8.73%8.95%10.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.7010.9011.0013.0011.49%9.17%9.09%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.31%5.46fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.457%
Kelly +0.556%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.43%18.46%18.24%20.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.065.105.6021.74%19.78%19.61%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local): 72.90%; Puerto Cabello (Visit): 8.78%; Draw: 18.31%. For Puerto Cabello (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.38. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 75.07%EV -5.23%E -4.02%K -17.42%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.51%EV +14.19%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.168%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.43%EV +2.56%E +0.457%K +0.556%G +0.014%2.5%2026-05-27 21:10
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.77%EV -5.96%E -4.62%K -20.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV +5.41%E +0.451%K +0.492%G +0.027%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%EV -4.77%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 08:00
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.72%EV -8.14%E -6.46%K -31.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV +5.41%E +0.451%K +0.492%G +0.027%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -1.11%E -0.205%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-27 21:10
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.72%EV -8.14%E -6.46%K -31.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV +5.41%E +0.451%K +0.492%G +0.027%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -1.11%E -0.205%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-27 21:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.72%EV -8.14%E -6.46%K -31.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV +5.41%E +0.451%K +0.492%G +0.027%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -1.11%E -0.205%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-27 21:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.72%EV -8.14%E -6.46%K -31.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV +5.41%E +0.451%K +0.492%G +0.027%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -1.11%E -0.205%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-27 21:10
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.06%EV -6.69%E -5.22%K -23.88%G +0.000%11.67I 8.57%NM 8.12%EV +2.51%E +0.215%K +0.235%G +0.006%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.82%EV -2.57%E -0.483%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-27 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV +1.02%E +0.088%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -4.77%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-27 21:10
LeoVegas🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV +1.02%E +0.088%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -4.77%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-27 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV +1.02%E +0.088%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -4.77%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-27 21:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV +1.02%E +0.088%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -4.77%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-27 21:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV +1.02%E +0.088%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -4.77%E -0.917%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-27 21:10
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.35%EV -3.04%E -2.29%K -9.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -3.37%E -0.307%K -0.337%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.02%EV -13.19%E -2.78%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-27 21:50
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.55%EV -5.96%E -4.62%K -20.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -3.37%E -0.307%K -0.337%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -15.76%E -3.43%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-27 19:59
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -3.37%E -0.307%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -8.43%E -1.69%K -2.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-27 20:20
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.96%E -4.62%K -20.54%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV -7.77%E -0.740%K -0.818%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -3.85%E -0.734%K -0.907%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -5.23%E -4.02%K -17.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -12.16%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -8.43%E -1.69%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 21:40
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.23%E -4.02%K -17.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.16%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -13.01%E -2.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-27 21:50
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.23%E -4.02%K -17.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.16%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -13.01%E -2.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-27 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.23%E -4.02%K -17.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.16%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -13.01%E -2.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-27 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.23%E -4.02%K -17.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.16%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -13.01%E -2.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-27 21:50
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -12.16%E -1.22%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -8.43%E -1.69%K -2.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-27 21:28
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.83%EV -5.96%E -4.62%K -20.54%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.45%EV -13.92%E -1.42%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -9.35%E -1.89%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-27 20:10
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.90%EV -3.77%E -2.86%K -11.78%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.60%EV -14.35%E -1.47%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -12.09%E -2.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-27 21:49
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.33%EV -11.06%E -9.07%K -50.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.29%EV -16.55%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -12.09%E -2.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-27 20:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.49%EV -8.14%E -6.46%K -31.32%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.21%EV -23.58%E -2.71%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.76%E -3.43%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-27 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.81%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-05-27 21:50