The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Sao Paulo

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 00:30 UTC

Final: Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao Paulo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 49.98%2.00fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.96%50.03%49.69%51.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.861.851.9656.18%53.88%54.05%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 19.28%5.19fair odd
EV +3.75%
Edge +0.697%
Kelly +0.856%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 5.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.84%19.17%19.51%21.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.684.605.3823.81%21.37%21.74%18.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.74%3.25fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -0.743%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.69%30.80%30.79%32.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.2035.71%33.37%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 49.98%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 19.28%; Draw: 30.74%. For Sao Paulo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.31%EV -6.54%E -3.50%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.84%EV +3.75%E +0.697%K +0.856%G +0.032%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.85%EV -4.40%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 00:25
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.08%EV -2.05%E -1.04%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.86%EV -1.65%E -0.324%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.06%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-08 23:44
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -6.54%E -3.50%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.58%E -0.716%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 00:24
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.20%EV -7.04%E -3.79%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.58%E -0.716%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 00:24
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -7.54%E -4.08%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -3.58%E -0.716%K -0.895%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 00:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.08%EV -3.55%E -1.84%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.72%EV -5.51%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -1.63%E -0.511%K -0.743%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-09 00:09
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.15%EV -4.54%E -2.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.56%EV -7.44%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.67%EV -5.54%E -2.93%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.56%EV -7.44%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 00:25
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.70%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -8.40%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.44%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -8.40%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.99%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 00:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.62%EV -8.54%E -4.67%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.40%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 00:24
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -8.54%E -4.67%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -8.40%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -13.93%E -4.97%K -7.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 00:14
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.74%EV -10.33%E -2.22%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.44%EV -10.24%E -3.51%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 00:10
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.62%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.62%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 00:09
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.62%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 00:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.62%EV -6.04%E -3.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 00:10
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -8.54%E -4.67%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 00:24
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.53%EV -7.54%E -4.08%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 00:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.53%EV -7.54%E -4.08%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.53%EV -7.54%E -4.08%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 00:24
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.53%EV -7.54%E -4.08%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 00:24
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.16%EV -10.04%E -5.58%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.24%EV -11.29%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.60%EV -13.93%E -4.97%K -7.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 00:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.77%EV -11.04%E -6.20%K -14.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.69%EV -13.22%E -2.94%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 00:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.15%EV -10.04%E -5.58%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -16.11%E -3.70%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.15%EV -10.04%E -5.58%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -16.11%E -3.70%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.15%EV -10.04%E -5.58%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -16.11%E -3.70%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.15%EV -10.04%E -5.58%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -16.11%E -3.70%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 00:09
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.96%EV -7.54%E -4.08%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -19.01%E -4.53%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.91%EV -11.78%E -4.10%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-09 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.83%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%0.9%2026-09-09 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.96%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%1.1%2026-09-09 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.96%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%1.1%2026-09-09 00:25
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.99%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.26%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.75%1.6%2026-09-09 00:25