The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Blooming v Bragantino-SP

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 00:30 UTC

Final: Blooming 0–6 Bragantino-SP

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Blooming (Local)

Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.557%
Kelly -0.785%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.26%28.50%28.43%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.293.303.4532.79%30.40%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 44.75%2.23fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%44.57%44.75%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.052.072.1451.81%48.72%48.31%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.82%3.73fair odd
EV -0.753%
Edge -0.203%
Kelly -0.279%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%26.94%26.82%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.443.453.7030.77%29.08%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Blooming (Local): 28.43%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 44.75%; Draw: 26.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.753%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.21%EV -1.92%E -0.557%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.48%EV -4.24%E -1.98%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%EV -0.753%E -0.203%K -0.279%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-08 00:24
Bovada🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -1.92%E -0.557%K -0.785%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -8.27%E -4.03%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 00:21
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -3.34%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.62%EV -7.37%E -3.56%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -3.34%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.62%EV -7.37%E -3.56%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 00:25
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -3.34%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.62%EV -7.37%E -3.56%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -3.34%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.62%EV -7.37%E -3.56%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 00:25
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.24%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.88%EV -5.13%E -2.42%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.88%EV -5.04%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 00:25
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -6.03%E -2.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -3.44%E -0.954%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 00:19
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.52%EV -5.33%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.02%EV -5.58%E -2.65%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.46%EV -3.70%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.19%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 00:25
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.19%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.19%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 00:20
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.19%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 00:04
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.19%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 00:05
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.03%E -2.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.03%E -2.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 00:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.03%E -2.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 00:24
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.61%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.27%E -4.03%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.03%E -2.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 00:15
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -6.92%E -3.33%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 00:25
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -10.50%E -5.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -12.82%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-08 00:20
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -12.74%E -6.53%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-08 00:15
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.03%E -2.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -13.29%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -13.64%E -7.07%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-08 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.57%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.80%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.80%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-05-08 00:25
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.65%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-05-08 00:20