The School of Odds
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América de Cali v Alianza Atlético

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 02:00 UTC

Final: América de Cali 2–1 Alianza Atlético

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América de Cali (Local)

Prediction 63.58%1.57fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.62%63.46%63.58%68.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.431.431.5474.63%70.15%69.93%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alianza Atlético (Visit)

Prediction 12.63%7.92fair odd
EV +7.36%
Edge +0.865%
Kelly +0.981%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.21%12.63%12.63%15.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.907.367.008.5016.95%13.58%14.29%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV +11.84%
Edge +2.52%
Kelly +3.20%
Growth +0.379%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.66%23.90%23.79%24.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.144.004.7027.03%24.18%25.00%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América de Cali (Local): 63.58%; Alianza Atlético (Visit): 12.63%; Draw: 23.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.91%EV -9.09%E -6.35%K -21.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%EV +7.36%E +0.865%K +0.981%G +0.072%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV +11.84%E +2.52%K +3.20%G +0.379%3.0%2026-04-16 01:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.07%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +7.36%E +0.865%K +0.981%G +0.072%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV +9.46%E +2.06%K +2.63%G +0.248%4.9%2026-04-16 01:54
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.07%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +7.36%E +0.865%K +0.981%G +0.072%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV +9.46%E +2.06%K +2.63%G +0.248%4.9%2026-04-16 01:54
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.07%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +7.36%E +0.865%K +0.981%G +0.072%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV +9.46%E +2.06%K +2.63%G +0.248%4.9%2026-04-16 01:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.07%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +7.36%E +0.865%K +0.981%G +0.072%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV +9.46%E +2.06%K +2.63%G +0.248%4.9%2026-04-16 01:55
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.01%EV -2.09%E -1.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.41I 15.60%NM 15.14%EV -19.04%E -2.97%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.85%EV +5.65%E +1.27%K +1.64%G +0.093%3.1%2026-04-16 01:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.77%EV -14.17%E -10.50%K -40.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV +1.04%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.002%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV +4.70%E +1.07%K +1.38%G +0.065%9.3%2026-04-16 01:54
LeoVegas🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -14.81%E -11.05%K -43.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV +1.04%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.002%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV +4.70%E +1.07%K +1.38%G +0.065%9.9%2026-04-16 01:52
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -14.81%E -11.05%K -43.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV +1.04%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.002%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV +4.70%E +1.07%K +1.38%G +0.065%9.9%2026-04-16 01:53
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -14.81%E -11.05%K -43.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV +1.04%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.002%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV +4.70%E +1.07%K +1.38%G +0.065%9.9%2026-04-16 01:54
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.27%E -3.54%K -10.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -17.90%E -2.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -2.44%E -0.595%K -0.787%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 01:50
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.91%E -3.99%K -12.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +1.04%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 01:44
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -4.64%E -3.09%K -9.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 01:44
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -24.22%E -4.04%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-15 23:04
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 01:45
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 01:49
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 01:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 01:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 01:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 62.63%EV -11.63%E -8.37%K -29.82%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.76%EV -25.48%E -4.32%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.61%EV -8.39%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-16 01:34
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.12%EV -4.64%E -3.09%K -9.27%G +0.000%7.83I 12.77%NM 12.09%EV -1.11%E -0.141%K -0.162%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.79%EV -9.10%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 01:54
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -11.59%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-16 01:45
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -8.45%E -5.87%K -19.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -17.90%E -2.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-16 01:44
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.94%EV -10.99%E -7.85%K -27.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -17.90%E -2.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.50%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-16 01:44
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.62%EV -4.64%E -3.09%K -9.27%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.40%EV -12.85%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 01:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.2%2026-04-16 01:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.2%2026-04-16 01:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.2%2026-04-16 01:44
Matchbook◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.2%2026-04-16 01:44
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 64.39%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.15%2.9%2026-04-16 01:55