Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

LDU Quito v Mirassol

Início: 2026-08-20 22:00 UTC

Final: LDU Quito 0–0 Mirassol

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

LDU Quito (Local)

Previsão 61.23%1.63odd justa
EV -3.87%
Vantagem -2.46%
Kelly -6.79%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.57

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
59.61%61.24%61.32%63.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.431.521.531.5769.93%65.78%65.36%63.69%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mirassol (Visitante)

Previsão 13.97%7.16odd justa
EV +9.95%
Vantagem +1.26%
Kelly +1.45%
Crescimento +0.144%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.87

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.06%13.98%13.85%15.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.756.566.507.8717.39%15.25%15.38%12.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.80%4.03odd justa
EV -0.807%
Vantagem -0.202%
Kelly -0.269%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.38%24.78%24.83%26.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.713.714.0028.57%26.96%26.95%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: LDU Quito (Local): 61.23%; Mirassol (Visitante): 13.97%; Empate: 24.80%. Para Mirassol (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.16. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.87, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.95%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.88%EV -7.54%E -4.99%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.87I 12.71%NM 12.06%EV +9.95%E +1.26%K +1.45%G +0.144%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.05%EV -6.02%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-20 21:54
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.80%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.12%EV +1.99%E +0.273%K +0.316%G +0.006%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.08%EV -5.27%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-20 21:45
Suprabets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.98%EV -7.54%E -4.99%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.00%EV +0.594%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.02%EV -7.26%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 21:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -9.99%E -6.80%K -21.26%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.99%EV +0.594%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -0.807%E -0.202%K -0.269%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 21:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.14%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.35%EV -0.524%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.50%EV -3.78%E -0.975%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-20 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.14%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.35%EV -0.524%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.50%EV -3.78%E -0.975%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-20 21:19
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.04%EV -5.70%E -3.70%K -10.56%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.46%EV -0.804%E -0.113%K -0.132%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.50%EV -3.29%E -0.843%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-20 21:19
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.61%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%7.03I 14.22%NM 13.58%EV -1.78%E -0.253%K -0.295%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-20 21:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.66%EV -3.87%E -2.46%K -6.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.83%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.05%E -0.518%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-20 21:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.66%EV -3.87%E -2.46%K -6.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.83%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.05%E -0.518%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-20 21:44
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.58%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-20 21:25
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -3.29%E -0.843%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-20 21:54
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.69%EV -5.70%E -3.70%K -10.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 21:45
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.95%EV -7.54%E -4.99%K -14.79%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -4.99%E -0.735%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 21:54
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.76%EV -6.93%E -4.56%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.58%EV -4.99%E -0.735%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-20 21:35
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.76%EV -6.93%E -4.56%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.58%EV -4.99%E -0.735%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-20 21:35
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.17%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -5.69%E -0.843%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-20 21:49
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.92%EV -6.93%E -4.56%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -5.69%E -0.843%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.49%E -2.60%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 21:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.82%EV -7.79%E -1.18%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.74%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.48%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 21:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.21%EV -6.93%E -4.56%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 21:34
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-20 21:44
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.79%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -13.21%E -3.77%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-20 21:34
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.79%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -13.21%E -3.77%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-20 21:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.79%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -13.21%E -3.77%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-20 21:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.79%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -13.21%E -3.77%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-20 21:34
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.21%E -3.77%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-20 21:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.21%E -3.77%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-20 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.25%EV -12.44%E -8.70%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -9.19%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-20 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -10.58%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-20 21:45
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -10.58%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-20 21:44
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -10.58%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-20 21:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.80%EV -11.98%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.06%EV -7.75%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 21:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.99%EV -5.09%E -3.29%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV -12.68%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 21:45
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.70%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -12.68%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 21:54
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.15%EV -5.70%E -3.70%K -10.56%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -12.68%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 21:44
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -12.68%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-20 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.84%EV -9.99%E -6.80%K -21.26%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.55%EV -12.68%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.78%EV -11.22%E -7.73%K -24.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.33%EV -12.68%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-20 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.73%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -16.17%E -2.70%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.04%EV -9.49%E -2.60%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-20 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.64%EV -8.77%E -5.88%K -17.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.97%E -3.27%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.03%EV -11.97%E -3.37%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-20 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.64%EV -8.77%E -5.88%K -17.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.97%E -3.27%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.03%EV -11.97%E -3.37%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-20 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.64%EV -8.77%E -5.88%K -17.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -18.97%E -3.27%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.03%EV -11.97%E -3.37%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-20 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 21:40
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 21:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 21:39
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 21:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-08-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-08-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-08-20 21:50
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.73%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.01%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.25%1.5%2026-08-20 21:55